2016 New York Jets Season Win Total Predictions

2016 New York Jets Season Win Total Predictions

Written by on July 18, 2016

Perhaps no team is harder to project from a win-loss perspective this NFL betting season as things stand currently than the New York Jets. That’s because I don’t know who their starting quarterback will be Week 1 as the team and 2015 starter Ryan Fitzpatrick remain at an impasse. I still believe he signs a deal before camp starts next week but you never know. The Jets have a wins total of 7.5.

Let’s Take a Look at the 2016 New York Jets Season Win Total Predictions

Total Win/Loss Odds Overview

The Jets were poised to reach postseason last for the first time since 2010. It looked like the Todd Bowles-Mike Maccagnan era in New York was about to start on the right foot in 2015. All they had to do was beat a familiar face in the regular-season finale. Instead, former Jets coach Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills ended the honeymoon. A 22-17 loss sent the Jets home, wondering how they squandered such an excellent opportunity.

Why Betting On The Over?

One big question regarding the Jets has been resolved as the team surprisingly agreed to a contract extension with star defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. The five-year deal is worth $86 million, of which $36.75 million is guaranteed at signing, including a $15 million signing bonus. The contract, which averages $17.2 million per season, also includes an injury guarantee of $53.5 million. Wilkerson’s average per year $17.2 million is the highest in team history. His $36.75 million guarantee is second only to Darrelle Revis ($39 million).

Wilkerson was unhappy at the prospect of playing the season under the tag, saying he was undecided if he’d report to training camp. He told the New York Post last month that he felt unwanted by the team, and he skipped the team’s offseason workouts and mandatory minicamp. Wilkerson made his first Pro Bowl last season after leading the Jets with 12 sacks, a career high. He broke his right leg (fibula) in the final game, requiring surgery a few days later — a six-month rehab, according to team officials.

Why Betting On The Under

It’s no secret wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and center Nick Mangold are big Fitzpatrick supporters. So if the team doesn’t reach an agreement with Fitzpatrick, it could create ill will in the locker room — especially if the Jets struggle without him.

If Geno Smith is the Week 1 starter, well that’s not a good thing. The Jets drafted Christian Hackenberg in the second round, but he’s a project. Second-year passer Bryce Petty, a former offensive force at Baylor, also should be considered a backup. If Fitzpatrick and the Jets don’t come to an agreement, New York will be Smith’s team again. “We’re very comfortable with that,” offensive coordinator Chan Gailey said.

Former Jet Bart Scott thinks the Jets might be better with Smith, although I disagree:

“Geno bring something to the table because he can throw the long ball, so it makes defenses have to step back and play more honestly, defend the entire field, because he can throw the 70-yard bomb on a rope. Fitz has to step into that. He can throw the same route, but he has to let it go earlier, which doesn’t allow the big receivers or the speed of [Eric] Decker to separate. So he has to throw it up, and they have to go get it,” Scott said.

Smith earned praise from the Jets as the nominal starter in the offseason, but some of that could’ve been posturing. We’ll know how the team really feels about him by the way they approach the Fitzpatrick negotiations. If Fitzpatrick doesn’t return, it’s important that Smith maintain his momentum from the spring. He was having a nice camp last year, until he got his jaw broken by teammate IK Enemkpali on a sucker punch in the locker room.

Fitzpatrick helps the offense in many ways, but throwing downfield isn’t one of them. He completed only 21.5 percent of passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air, ranking 33rd in the NFL. Smith hit on 38.2 percent of such passes in 2013-2014.

My Betting Prediction

Go over the total on NFL odds as the Jets are strong on defense and at receiver. I think Fitzpatrick gets a deal done.