2017 NFL Season Win Total Over/Under Picks For AFC West

Posted by Eric Williams on Wednesday,May 24, 2017 4:45, EDT in

With a pair of 12-win teams and one 9-win team that won the Super Bowl the year before, the AFC West was undoubtedly the best and most competitive division in the entire NFL last season. Now, with three legitimate Super Bowl hopefuls for the second straight season, the AFC West could be a major factor in determining who represents the AFC in Super Bowl 52.

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If you want to know just what to expect out of the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers in 2017, then you’re about to find out right now, thanks to the expert analysis that you’re about to get on all four teams’ respective win total odds for the upcoming 2017 regular season. Keep in mind that the four teams that make up the AFC West have the four toughest schedules in the NFL in 2017.

Analyzing The 2017 NFL Season Win Total Over/Under Picks For AFC West

 

 

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs 9 Wins

Home: Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Bills, Dolphins, Steelers, Eagles, Redskins
Away: Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Patriots, Jets, Texans, Giants, Cowboys

Analysis: The Chiefs have what looks like a relatively manageable win total seeing as how they went 12-4 a year ago before falling to Pittsburgh 18-16 in a heart-breaker in the playoffs. I like Kansas City to get the ATS cover – and outright upset in their opener against Tom Brady and the Patriots before going on to beat Philadelphia at home in Week 2. The Chiefs could fall on the road against the Chargers in Week 3 before beating the Redskins at home and Houston on the road. I’ve got Alex Smith and company falling at Pittsburgh and Oakland in Weeks 6 and 7 before coming home to beat Denver in a divisional thriller.

After stunning Dallas on the road, the Chiefs get a bye in Week 10. I’ve got Kansas City falling on the road to the Giants before coming home to beat Buffalo and then hitting the road again to beat the dysfunctional Jets. Following that win, I like Kansas City to beat the Raiders, Bolts and Dolphins at home before losing their regular season finale at Denver.  By my calculations, I’ve got the Chiefs going 11-5 to top their 9-win Over/Under total for 2017 although 10 wins kind of looks right as well. Either way, I like Andy Reid’s squad to top nine wins seeing as how they have a phenomenal defense that ranked seventh in the league in points allowed (19.4 ppg) last season.

Pick: Over 9 Wins

Oakland 9.5 Wins

Home: Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Patriots, Jets, Ravens, Giants, Cowboys
Away: Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Bills, Dolphins, Titans, Eagles, Redskins

Analysis: The Raiders won an impressive 12 games last season and ranked seventh in the league in scoring in 2016 (26.0 ppg), but they have a tough way to go in 2017. Still, I like Derek Carr and the blossoming Raiders to get a narrow road win in their opener against Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans before going on to beat Jets at home and Washington on the road.

I’ve got Oakland falling in Denver in Week 4 before coming back home to beat the Ravens, Chargers and Chiefs. A road win against Buffalo will come in week 8, followed by a stunning road loss to Ryan Tannehill and the rejuvenated Miami Dolphins one week later. After a bye in Week 10, I like the Raiders to upset Tom Brady and the Patriots at home in a shootout. A pair of home wins against Denver and the New York Giants will follow and then a road loss at Kansas City and home defeat against Dallas. To close out the regular season, I like Oakland to beat Philly in the City of Brotherly Love before falling on the road against the Chargers in Week 17 to finish with 11 wins.

Pick: Over 9.5 Wins

Denver 8.5 Wins

Home: Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Patriots, Jets, Bengals, Cowboys, New York Giants
Away: Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Bills, Dolphins, Colts, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins

Analysis: The Broncos took a step backwards lat season after winning Super Bowl 51 the season before, but it wasn’t all that bad and the Broncos should have a decent shot to get back to being a double-digit winner in 2017 despite their daunting schedule.

I’ve got John Elway’s team winning their opener at home against the Chargers before suffering their first loss in Week 2 at home against Dallas. I like Denver to get a road win in Buffalo the following week before coming home to beat the Raiders and then getting a bye in Week 5.

The Broncos will then beat the Giants at home before hitting the road for a pair of divisional dates which I believe will both be losses at Los Angeles and Kansas City. A road win in Philadelphia followed by a home loss to New England and home win over Cincinnati will come in Weeks 9, 10 and 11 followed by a road loss at Oakland and a road win in South Beach against the Dolphins. Then, in their final four games, I’ve got the broncos going 3-1 over the stretch by beating the Jets at home, falling at Indianapolis and closing out the season by losing at Washington and winning at home against Kansas City to finish with nine wins or maybe 10 at best. If you didn’t know, the Broncos still have a phenomenal defense that finished the 2016 season ranked a stellar fourth in points allowed (18.6 ppg).

Pick: Over 8.5 Wins

L.A. Chargers 7.5 Wins

Home: Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Dolphins, Browns, Eagles, Redskins
Away: Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Patriots, Jets, Jaguars, Giants, Cowboys

Analysis: The Chargers will open their first season in L.A. looking to get back to being a respectable team after winning just five games last season and I believe they could take a big step forward, mostly because of quarterback Philip Rivers and the Bolts’ decision to hire Anthony Lynn as their head coach, not to mention the fact that the Bolts ranked an encouraging ninth in scoring a year ago (25.6 ppg).

I’ve got the Bolts losing to the Broncos on the road in Week 1 and at home against Miami the following week before upsetting Kansas City at home in Week 3 and beating Philly at home a week after that. I’ve got Rivers and company suffering a pair of road losses at the Giants and Raiders before coming back home in Week 7 to upset Denver. A Week 8 road loss to New England is followed by a timely bye in week 9.

The Chargers should then win at Jacksonville and at home against Buffalo before losing to Dallas at AT&T Stadium. A blowout win over the Browns will come in Week 13, but a home loss against Washington and road loss at Kansas City could follow. I like San Diego to close out the regular season by beating the Jets on the road and Oakland at home to finish with eight wins and narrowly top their 2017 win total odds.

Pick: Over 7.5 Wins