2018 NFL Conference Finals Betting Preview: Over/Under Picks

2018 NFL Conference Championship Betting Preview: Over/Under Picks

Written by on January 18, 2018

If you’re a betting buff that is fired up about the quickly approaching NFL Conference Championship games and you love making Over/Under bets that take the guesswork out of making often arduous ATS picks, then you’re going to love the pair of expert Over/Under Total picks that you’re about to get! Since haste makes waste and both conference title tilts are just over 72 hours away, let’s get down to business!

2018 NFL Conference Championship Betting Preview: Over/Under Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)

  • When: Sunday, 3:05 PM ET
  • Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: 1010 AM (Jacksonville) / 98.5 FM (New England)
  • Stream Option: NFL Live
  • NFL Conference Championship Odds: Patriots -8.5 (Over/Under at 46.5)
The Jags and Patriots were two of the best defensive teams in the league during the season with Jacksonville finishing second in points allowed (16.8 ppg) and New England ranking fifth (18.5 ppg). However, you’d never know the Jags were super elite on defense after they gave up a whopping 42 points to Pittsburgh last weekend, although they did hold Buffalo to just a field goal in their wild-card playoff opener. New England held Tennessee to a modest 14 points in their divisional round win last weekend while simultaneously putting 35 points on the board offensively. So, what’s going to go down when these two Super Bowl hopefuls square off on Sunday while facing an Over/Under total of 46? The Over is 5-0 in Jacksonville’s last 5 games following a straight-up win and 4-0 in their last four games following an ATS win. However, NFL bettors should know that the Under is 8-2 in the Jaguars’ last 10 games against their AFC counterparts and 2-1 in their last three games overall. Of course, both under outcomes came against seriously offensively-challenged teams (Tennessee and Buffalo). As far as New England is concerned, the Over is 4-0 in the Patriots last four playoff games, an unblemished 7-0 in their last 7 playoff home games and a consistent 8-3 in their last 11 home games overall. However, it should also be noted that the Under is 5-2 in New England’s last seven Conference Championships games, an identical 5-2 in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.

Expert Final Analysis & Betting Pick

So, what does all of the aforementioned trends mean? It sounds to me like it means that New England usually shuts down their opponents in the AFC championship and that Jacksonville has done the same to the vast majority of their AFC rivals. Personally, I think 46 points is a bit too high for these two teams to topple, which is why I’m going to encourage you to take the Under. I’m thinking we’re looking at a final score of New England 21 Jacksonville 17…or something very, very close to that! Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

  • When: Sunday, 6:40 PM ET
  • Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philly
  • TV: Fox
  • Radio: 1270 AM (Minnesota) / SportsRadio 94WIP (Philadelphia)
  • Stream Option: Fox Sports Go
  • NFL Conference Championship Odds: Minnesota Vikings -3 (Over/Under at 39)
Look, if you don’t know by now, Minnesota ranked almost first across the board defensively this season and gave up a league-low 15.8 points per game while Philadelphia wasn’t far off the mark in finishing the regular season ranked a stellar fourth in points allowed (18.4 ppg). The Vikings needed a miracle to win their NFC divisional round matchup against Drew Brees and the explosive New Orleans Saints last weekend, but they only gave up 24 points before getting that ‘miracle’ win. Many think that Minnesota owns the best defense in the NFL Conference Finals. Philadelphia looked even better than their conference counterparts in holding the dangerous Atlanta Falcons to just 10 points in their divisional matchup, although it should be noted that the Falcons really struggled to score the ball all season long. Now, NFL bettors need to know that the Under is a consistent 10-2 in Minnesota’s last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record and an equally impressive 20-7 in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record. The Under is also 4-0 in Philadelphia’s last 4 home games, 6-0 in their last six home games against a team with a winning road record and 6-2 in their last 8 games overall. The Under is also a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between these conference rivals when they meet in Philadelphia and 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall.

Expert Final Analysis and Betting Pick

With all of that said, I really like the Under for the second show of the NFL Conference Championship games, even though the over/under total is fairly low at 38.5 points. Realistically, I just don’t see Philly putting more than 14 points on the board, if that, while Minnesota gets held to 21 points or so. Take the Under people! Pick: Under 39 Total Points