2018 NFL Week 1 Over/Under Betting Picks

2018 NFL Week 1 Over/Under Betting Picks

Written by on September 4, 2018

After sleep-walking through the preseason, which team is going to show up when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 1? Can the Los Angeles Chargers snap their long losing streak against the Kansas City Chiefs in a season they’re expected to contend for the AFC conference crowns at the very least? Last but not least, can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick up the big road upset without starting quarterback Jameis Winston when they take on Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in their Week 1 NFC South divisional showdown? I’m going to answer all three questions as I offer up my trio of expert Over/Under NFL total picks.

2018 NFL Week 1 Over/Under Betting Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

When: Thursday, September 6, 2018 at 8:20 PM ET Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NFL Week 1 Odds: Philadelphia -2.5Total: 45 The Falcons looked completely awful in losing all four of their preseason games. Atlanta scored 14 points in one game and seven points or less in their other three scrimmage games. Philadelphia didn’t look much better even though they managed to beat the Jets 10-9 in their week 4 preseason date. The Eagles also struggled to score by putting up 14 points or less in all four of their scrimmage contests. Now, for this week 1 matchup of NFC Super Bowl contenders, I’m thinking both of these teams won’t be firing on all cylinders offensively for a couple of games minimum and that the Under 45 total points is a near lock in my opinion. The Under is 7-0 in Atlanta’s last 7 games and 4-0 in their last four road games. The Under is also 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last 5 home games and 7-3 in their last 10 games in the month of September. Last but not least, the Under is 9-4 in Philly’s last 13 regular season openers and a a nearly identical 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings against the Falcons. NFL Week 1 Pick: Under 45 Total Points 

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Are the Chargers a safe bet in NFL Week 1? When: Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 4:05 PM ET Where: StubHub Center, Carson, California NFL Week 1 Odds: LA Chargers -3 / Total: 47.5 (-3, 47.5) Kansas City has won a stunning eight straight, over the Chargers dating back to 2013. The Bolts however, are now being looked at as the better of these two teams and the only one in this matchup with legitimate Super Bowl hopes. Both teams went 2-2 in the preseason. Kansas City scored 28 points or more in their two preseason wins while L.A. scored 23 or more in both of theirs. The Chiefs are entering the 2018 campaign with a new starting quarterback in second-year signal-caller Patrick Mahomes and that means no one really knows what to expect out of the Chiefs. Conversely, the Bolts come into 2018 with some high hopes after finishing third in points allowed last season and Philip Rivers back at the helm. The Under was the right pick in both regular season meetings a year ago and I believe it’s the pick for this Week 1 matchup as well. I know the Over is 8-3 in Kansas City’s last 11 road games and 4-1 in the Chargers’ last 5 regular season openers, the Under is 4-1 in L.A.’s  last 5 home games and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these longtime division rivals. I like the Under to narrowly play out as the pick. NFL Week 1 Pick: Chargers 24 Chiefs 21

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

When: Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 1:00 PM ET Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana NFL Week 1 Odds: New Orleans -9.5 / Total: 49.5 The Bucs looked decent in the preseason by going 2-2, but that was with Jameis Winston playing pretty lights out football, often, against a bunch of backups. Now, with Winston out for the first three regular season games, the Bucs will get to see if they can move the ball against a Saints defense that was very good last season in ranking 10th in points allowed (20.4 ppg). More importantly, can the Bucs stop a New Orleans offense that was as explosive as ever under the direction of future Hall of Famer Drew Brees. The Saints finished fourth in scoring last season (28.0 ppg) while the Bucs were tied for 22n in points allowed (23.9 ppg). These two division rivals have split the last four meetings evenly with the home team winning each contest. I’m expecting more of the same  in a contest that just looks like its going to produce some points. The Over is 9-0 in Tampa Bay’s last nine road games and 4-0 in the Saints’ last four regular season openers and 4-1 in their last five home games. I’m going with the Saints for the win, the narrow ATS cover – and the Over! NFL Week 1 Pick: Saints 31 Buccaneers 21