NFL Conference Round Over/Under Betting Picks

NFL Conference Round Over/Under Betting Picks

Written by on January 16, 2019

Are the explosive Los Angeles Rams and high-scoring New Orleans Saints going to approach the 80-point plateau they combined to reach in their Week 9 regular season meeting?

Will the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs hook up to top 80 combined points for the second time this season like they did in their absolutely thrilling Week 6 matchup?

With the four highest scoring teams in the league all reaching the conference championship round, NFL Over/Under total bettors need to know if there’s going to be an abundance of points scored in either or both conference title tilts this coming weekend. Let’s get started with some Over/Under betting statistics.

The O/U total is 111-135 in all non-overtime games this season and 12-3 in all overtime games.

NFL Conference Round Over/Under Betting Picks

L.A. Rams (14-3) at New Orleans Saints (14-3)

  • When: Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 3:05 PM ET
  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
  • TV: FOX
  • Live Stream: NFL Live
  • NFL Conference Round Odds: New Orleans -3 / Total: 57

The Rams (14-3 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 9-8 O/U) reached the NFC Championship by smacking Dallas around en route to a convincing 30-22 win last weekend in a game that played Over the 48-point total. Veteran running back C.J. Anderson rushed for a team-high 123 yards and two touchdowns while star running back Todd Gurley added 115 rushing yards and one score in the win.

“We’ve got two different styles, and we can keep teams off balance. … Playing on the field with Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott, I’m just trying to make my statement and make my stamp in this game, too.”

L.A. has played Over the total in two straight games and three of their last four games overall, but the total is just 2-6 O/U in L.A.’s eight road dates this season. The Rams average 32.9 points per game to rank second in scoring while allowing 24.0 points per game defensively (20th).

  • Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 road games.
  • Over is 9-2 in Rams last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-2 in Rams last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 games following a ATS win.

The Saints (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 O/U) reached the NFC Championship by shutting Philadelphia out for the game’s final three quarters after falling into a 14-0 hole after the first quarter. The game’s final score played well Under the 52-point total after the Saints finished the regular season with a pair of Over outcomes.

Pro Bowl wide receiver Michael Thomas caught 12 passes for 171 yards and one score while Drew Brees completed 28 of 38 passes for 301 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

“What you saw from him today is what I see every day in practice,” Brees said of Thomas. “He’s a big-time player who wants to be the guy to make plays.”

The Saints average 30.8 points per game to rank a stellar third in scoring while allowing 22.1 points per game defensively (14th). New Orleans has gone 5-4 O/U in nine home dates this season.

  • Over is 6-1 in Saints last 7 playoff home games.
  • Under is 6-1 in Saints last 7 vs. NFC.
  • Under is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games overall.
  • Over is 18-7-1 in Saints last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 10-4-1 in Saints last 15 playoff games.
  • Over is 11-5 in Saints last 16 games following a ATS loss.

Prediction

While these two teams combined for 80 points in New Orleans’ 45-35 win over L.A. in Week 9, I don’t think they’re going to reach the figure this time around. L.A. and New Orleans both looked fantastic on defense in their respective divisional round wins last weekend, I am still expecting both teams to approach reaching the 30-point plateau.

The Over is 6-2 in the Rams’ last 8 games against a team with a winning record and 21-10-1 in the Saints’ last 32 home games. I’m going with Drew Brees and the Saints to remain unbeaten at home in the postseason while the Over narrowly plays out.

NFC Championship Pick: Saints 31 Rams 27

New England Patriots (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

New England Patriots

The Patriots (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS, 6-11 O/U) reached the AFC Championship for an unprecedented eighth consecutive season by throttling Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 win in their AFC divisional showdown last weekend while the game’s final score played Over the 47.5-point total following a trio of consecutive Under outcomes to close out the regular season. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed for 129 yards and three touchdowns while Tom Brady passed for 343 yards and one touchdown.

The O/U total is 3/5 in New England’s eight road dates this season and 1/3 in their last four road games overall. New England averages 27.2 points per game to rank fourth in scoring while limiting the opposition to just 20.3 points per contest defensively to rank seventh overall.

  • Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.
  • Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in January.
  • Under is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 road games.
  • Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 Conference Championships games.
  • Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 vs. AFC.
  • Under is 14-5 in Patriots last 19 games on grass.
  • Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up win.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 1-6-1 O/U) reached the AFC title tilt by shutting down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts in their 31-13 AFC divisional round win last weekend while the game’s final score played Under the 54-point total. Patrick Mahomes passed for 278 yards while rushing for one score while running back Damien Williams added 129 rushing yards and another score. Kansas City’s defense limited quarterback Andrew Luck to a modest 203 passing yards while holding running back Marlon Mack to just 46 rushing yards on nine carries. The O/U total is 3-5-1 in nine home dates this season. The Chiefs have won eight of their nine home games this season and average a league-leading 35.3 points per game.

    • Over is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
    • Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 playoff home games.
    • Under is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games following a ATS win.
    • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 playoff games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 14-5 in Chiefs last 19 games in January.
  • Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Chiefs last 8 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Chiefs last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 50-22-1 in Chiefs last 73 home games.

Prediction

If you didn’t know it before…now you do. The Kansas City Chiefs have scored 40 points or more in three of their last four meetings against the New England Patriots! With that said, I’m expecting the Chiefs and Pats to top the 57.5-point O/U total in their AFC Championship matchup on Sunday.

While the Patriots got past the Chiefs 43-40 earlier this season, I’m going with Kansas City to extract their revenge simply because they’re playing at home and New England has struggled mightily in going 3-5 SU on the road this season.

The Chiefs have gone 2-2 against the Patriots over their last four meetings and Andy Reid is one of the few coaches on the planet that  knows exactly what it takes to beat Bill Belichick. I like Kansas City to get it done in another thriller.

AFC Championship Pick: Chiefs 34 Patriots 27