2019 NFL Week 1 ATS Betting Picks

2019 NFL Week 1 ATS Betting Picks

Written by on September 3, 2019

Okay NFL betting enthusiasts…it’s finally here! With the the start of the 2019 NFL regular season just days away, it’s time to get your new betting campaign off to the fast and furious start you’re all hoping for! Thanks to the trio of expert Week 1 NFL ATS picks that you’re about to get, you’re going to have a great chance of doing just that! Now, let’s find out who’s in action and where some of the best betting value on the NFL Week 1 docket lies.

2019 NFL Week 1 ATS Betting Picks

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

  • When: Thursday September 5, 2019, 8:20 PM ET
  • Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill
  • TV: NBC
  • NFL Week 1 Odds: Chicago -3 / Total: 46.5

Sure, the Green Bay Packers haven’t missed the playoffs in three straight seasons since way back in1990-92, but Aaron Rodgers and company will be hard-pressed to get past a Chicago Bears team that went a stellar 12-4 a year ago and won the NFC North over both, Minnesota and third-place Green Bay (6-9-1). The Packers went 2-2 in the preseason without Rodgers ever seeing any action and now the Packers will look to get their new era under first-time head coach Matt LaFleur off to a positive start.

The Bears are coming off their first double-digit winning season since 2012 and despite an underwhelming 1-3 mark in the preseason, Chicago looks like a legitimate Super Bowl contender heading into 2019 for a couple of great reasons. First, the up-and-coming Bears finished a spectacular first in points allowed a year ago (17.7 ppg). Just as important, Chicago also finished the 2018 campaign ranked an impressive ninth in scoring (26.3 ppg). Chicago has one of the game’s brightest offensive minds in now, second-year head coach Matt Nagy and they’ve got a game-changing superstar linebacker in perennial Pro Bowler Khalil Mack, not to mention a talented young quarterback in Mitch Trubisky that will be looking to take a big leap forward in 2019 after passing for over 3,000 yards with 24 TD passes and 12 interceptions.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Packers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Chicago.
  • Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
  • Favorite is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Prediction

The Packers have won each of their last four regular season openers and a stunning 58 percent of public bettors are backing the Pack to cover the chalk as a field goal underdog in this one. However, for me, Chicago is simply the better team on both sides of the ball and I like them to win their third straight over their longtime rivals after sweeping Green bay in the regular season a year ago. Including their 24-17 home win.

Green Bay’s defense worries me heading into the new season after they finished 22nd in points allowed last season (25.0 ppg). The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and a winless 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC North. Conversely, the Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. Chicago’s defense make will rule in this one while making life super difficult on Aaron Rodgers, who I suspect will be rusty after not playing a single down in the preseason.

Pick: Chicago 27 Green Bay 21

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

  • When: Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 1:00 PM ET
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
  • TV: CBS
  • NFL Week 1 Odds: Baltimore -7 / Total: 37.5

The Ravens enter the 2019 season looking to improve on their fine, 10-6 mark under now, second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson. Baltimore also finished a stellar second in points allowed last season (17.9 ppg) while also finishing 13th in scoring (24.3 ppg) and a stupendous second in rushing (152.6 ypg). Better yet, the Ravens already looked like they were in mid-season form in going 4-0 in the preseason while not allowing more than 15 points in any scrimmage contest.

The Dolphins have missed the playoffs in 15 of the last 17 years and their prospects for reaching the postseason in 2019 look almost non-existent if you ask me. Sure, the Fins went 3-1 in the preseason, but this is a team that will be playing for a first-time head coach in Brian Flores and one that recently jettisoned a bunch of veteran starters for future draft picks as they look to build for 2020 and beyond.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

  • Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
  • Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami.
  • Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.

Prediction

Despite getting a touchdown as home underdogs in this one, a compelling 68 percent of public bettors are currently backing Baltimore to get it done and I couldn’t agree more. The Ravens are the far superior team on both sides of the ball and they’ve got a lot to play for in 2019 while Miami is probably looking to just not get embarrassed too badly this coming season, although everyone knows they’re tanking.

Baltimore has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1 and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of September. While Miami has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, the Fins are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games home against the Ravens and 0-8 ATS in their last eight meetings against Baltimore overall. If this game isn’t well in hand for the Ravens by halftime, I’ll be shocked!

Pick: Baltimore 28 Miami 14

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

  • When: Monday September 9, 2019, 10:20 PM (EDT)
  • Where: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland, CA
  • TV: ESPN
  • NFL Week 1 Odds: PK / Total: 43

After going 6-10 a year ago to miss the postseason, the Broncos will have a new head coach in longtime defensive guru Vic Fangio and a new starting quarterback in veteran Joe Flacco. Unfortunately, Denver also has a ton of issues to fix, particularly on the offensive side of the ball after finishing 24th in scoring last season (20.6 ppg). The fact that they went 1-3 in the preseason while getting held to 14 points or less three times while never scoring more than 20 points, leads me to believe the Broncos are going to struggle to score the ball in a big way again in 2019.

The Raiders will look to bounce back from their uninspiring 4-12 campaign in 2018 in their first year under head coach Jon Gruden and they made a lot of moves in the offseason to do just that, not to mention the fact that they went an encouraging 3-1 in the preseason. Despite ranking an awful 28th in scoring (18.1 ppg) and pitiful 32nd in points allowed last season (29.2 ppg), Oakland’s addition of veteran wide receiver Antonio brown and their additions of several other veterans and three draft picks in the first two rounds, leads me to believe the Raiders will be a lot better on both sides of the ball this coming season than they ever were a year ago.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Favorite is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Oakland.
  • Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Prediction

These two longtime AFC West division rivals split their two regular season meetings a year ago with Oakland recording a convincing 27-14 win at home. The Raiders have won three straight home games in this heated rivalry while Denver has gone 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games. As you can see from the above head-to-head trends, the home team is generally a near-lock to cover the chalk in this series and that’s the way you should go in this matchup of two, nearly evenly matched division rivals!

Pick: Oakland 23 Denver 21