Can Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings pull off their second straight postseason upset when they hit the road to take on Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers in their intriguing NFC divisional matchup on Saturday? In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will look to avoid their own upset loss against Russell Wilson and the ‘road warrior’ Seattle Seahawks in this coming weekend’s other NFC divisional round showdown. With two highly-anticipated affairs set for Sunday, let’s find out which teams are offering the best value against their respective NFL odds.
2020 NFC Divisional Round Odds, Preview & Predictions
Minnesota Vikings (11-6) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
- When: Saturday January 11, 2020, 4:35 PM ET
- Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- TV: NBC
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
- NFC Divisional Round Odds: San Francisco -6.5 / Total: 45
Minnesota pulled off a huge, 26-20 overtime upset of the Saints in their NFC wild card clash last weekend as Kirk Cousins showed up in a big way by passing for 242 yards and one touchdown while making the biggest play of the game by hooking up with Pro Bowl wide receiver Adam Thielen on a 43-yard pass play that put the ball on the 2-yard line before hooking up with tight end Kyle Rudolph on the game-winner on third and goal. Minnesota ranks a stellar sixth in points allowed (18.9 ppg) while also ranking a surprising eighth in scoring 925.4 ppg).
San Francisco won 13 games to win the NFC West and get a first round bye as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 3,978 yards with 27 touchdowns but 13 interceptions. Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle led the team with 85 catches for 1,053 yards and five scores. The Niners finished the regular season ranked a fantastic eighth in points allowed (19.4 ppg) and a stupendous second in scoring (29.9 ppg).
While Frisco went 6-2 SU at home this season and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record, the Niners are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Minnesota went a modest 5-4 on the road this season, but the Vikings are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against their NFC counterparts. I was seriously impressed with Kirk Cousins last weekend and I believe that Minnesota is now poised to pull off their second straight upset. Back the Vikings to cover the chalk at the very least, even though I’ve got Minnesota winning outright!
Pick: Minnesota 23 San Francisco 21
Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at Green Bay Packers (13-3)
- When: Sunday January 12, 2020, 6:40 PM ET
- Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- TV: FOX
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
- NFC Divisional Round Odds: Green Bay -4 / Total: 46
Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks continued their statement-making ways on the road by dispatching Philadelphia 17-9 in their wild card matchup last weekend to cash in as a 2.5-point road favorite. Wilson passed for 325 yards and one score while adding 45 rushing yards in the win. More importantly, Seattle’s defense showed up in a big way to limit the eagles to 282 total yards of offense and no touchdowns, although the Birds did lose starting quarterback Carson Wentz in the first quarter to a concussion. The Seahawks closed out the regular season ranked ninth in scoring (25.3 ppg), but just 22nd in points allowed (24.9 ppg).
Green Bay won 13 games to win the NFC North and get a first round bye and the Packers hit the postseason riding the wave of a five-game winning streak. While Green Bay ranked an encouraging ninth in points allowed (19.6 ppg), the Packers also struggled to score the ball by finishing 15th in scoring (23.5 ppg). More importantly, future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers has clearly declined over the last couple of seasons and was nothing more than a middle-of-the-pack signal-caller this season. Running back Aaron Jones had a fine season by rushing for 1,084 yards and 16 touchdowns while Pro Bowl wide receiver Davante Adams added 997 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
I know Green Bay is playing at home after going a stellar 7-1 at Lambeau Field during the regular season, but I genuinely believe that Seattle is the better team in this matchup and that Russell Wilson is going to outplay Rodgers to lead Seattle to the outright road win. Sure, Green Bay has gone an unblemished 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record, but the Packers are also an uninspiring 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
On the flip side of the coin, Seattle has gone a near-perfect 8-1 SU and ATS on the road this season while also going a bankroll-boosting 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games and seriously consistent 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog.
I know the Seahawks are a winless 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road dates against Green Bay, but I believe Green Bay isn’t nearly as good as their 13-win record suggests. Seattle actually plays better football on the road than at home this season and Russell Wilson can make plays when it looks like there’s no play to be made, something Aaron Rodgers can no longer do. Not only do the Seahawks cover the chalk as a 4-point road dog, but they do so by winning outright!
Pick: Seattle 28 Green Bay 27