It’s now less than a week before the start of Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta, which means that it’s time to get serious about the NFL betting picks we are going to make on the big game. One bet that is sure to see a lot of money is the point total, which is currently sitting at 56 ½. Since 2010, that is the second highest point total for any Super Bowl, but there are a number of reasons to believe that the Patriots and Rams could combine to go OVER the total. Let’s take a look at 5 reasons why the OVER might just be the bet to make here.
5 Reasons to Bet the Over for Super Bowl LIII
- When: Sunday, February 3, 2019, 6:30 PM ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
- TV: CBS
- Radio: New England / Los Angeles
- Live Stream: NFL Live
- Super Bowl LIII Odds: New England -2.5 / Total: 58
Both Teams Have a Balanced Attack
Neither the Patriots or Rams need to lean too heavily on one form of attack to be successful. We don’t need to go into detail about what Tom Brady has done in his career, especially in big games, and while Jared Goff is still young, he has proven to be very cool and calm in the pocket.
Both QB’s are helped by great running games, with Todd Gurley of the Rams and rookie sensation Sony Michel both capable of churning out huge chunks of yardage. Both will want to get the run game established early, and if they do, the points will come.
Third Down Efficiency
During the course of the regular season, the Rams led the league in 3rd down efficiency, making 45% of their attempts. The Patriots were down in #8 during the regular season, but they are on top in the postseason, with the Rams sitting third in this particular category.
Keeping drives alive is the key to getting points on the board, and with both teams able to keep the ball moving, it stands to reason that both are going to get their scoring opportunities.
Total Yards Leaders
Both of these teams have offenses that are incredibly efficient, which is why the Patriots are first and the Rams second in total yards in the postseason.
The Rams were 2nd in yardage in the regular season, with the Patriots in at #5. While total yards are not always an indicator of total points, they certainly have been for both of these teams. In the playoffs, the Patriots are averaging 39 PPG, while the Rams have posted 28 PPG in their two outings.
In this particular category, we really need to look at what the Patriots have and haven’t been doing over the last 3 games, 2 of which came in the postseason.
New England has been money in the red zone during this stretch, scoring TD’s over 76% of the time they got there. On the flip side, their defense has surrendered a TD 75% of the time that the opposition got into the red zone. We can then expect both teams to score a TD more often than not when they get inside the opposition 20.
History Favors the OVER
While it has long been said that defense wins championships, the last few Super Bowl match-ups suggest otherwise. Of the last 6 championship games, we have seen 5 go OVER the point total.
This includes each of the last 3 times that the New England Patriots have played in the big game. All of this suggests that the OVER might be the way to go here.
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