ATS Betting Analysis & Picks for NFL Week 5

Posted by Eric Williams on Saturday,October 7, 2017 10:18, EST in

The Buffalo Bills have been an absolute revelation in the early going of the 2017 NFL regular season and will look to keep up their eye-opening play on NFL Week 5 when they visit a Cincinnati Bengals team that keeps on underachieving under head coach Marvin Lewis.

The Dallas Cowboys will look to put a patch on their porous pass defense before they host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, while last but not least, the Los Angeles Rams will host the Seattle Seahawks in what is now one of the more intriguing matchups on the entire Week 5 docket.

Let’s get started with the analysis, but don’t forget to check the NFL betting lines throughout the entire week.

ATS Betting Analysis & Picks for NFL Week 5

Best Betting Picks to Place an NFL Parlay in Week 5

Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

When: Sunday, October 8, 2017, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
NFL Odds: Cincinnati -3
Total: 38.5

Latest NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

  • Bills are 2-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
  • Bills are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing Cincinnati
  • Buffalo 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
  • Bengals are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at home

Analysis

It’s nice that Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals picked up a convincing 31-7 win over the Cleveland Browns this past weekend, but the Buffalo Bills are clearly the better team in this Week 5 pairing seeing as how to rank a phenomenal first in points allowed (13.5 ppg) and come into this contest off two stunning wins over legitimate Super Bowl contenders by taking down Denver 26-26 in Week 4 and stunning Atlanta 23-17 this past Sunday.

The Bills have the edge at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor being better than Dalton and surely at head coach where Sean McDermott is clearly inspiring his team more than longtime Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis.

I’m expecting the Bills to use their stout defense to force Andy Dalton to be forced into at least one costly turnover and likely two. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win while Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record. The Bills get the outright ‘upset’ win, but really, this won’t be an upset at all.

NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo +3

Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

When: Sunday, October 8, 2017, 4:25 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
NFL Odds: Dallas -2
Total: 52.5

Latest NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

  • Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games
  • Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Dallas
  • Green Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Dallas
  • Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
  • Cowboys are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home

Analysis

The Dallas Cowboys have a pass defense that is absolutely mediocre at its very best and the prize waiting for them inside their Cracker Jack Box this week is a date with arguably the best quarterback in the game today – Green Bay Packers superstar Aaron Rodgers.

I know that second-year stars Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are the foundation for a Dallas offense that is pretty good, but again, Dallas’ defense looks a lot like Swiss cheese when it comes to stopping the pass as they showed in their 35-30 loss on Sunday as Jared Goff and the Los Angeles ramRamsis past weekend.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are the underdogs in NFL Week 5.

Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to an emphatic 35-14 win over longtime NFC North division rival Chicago on Thursday night, not to mention the fact that the Packers have won six of the last seven meetings against Dallas, including last season’s 34-31 divisional round playoff win.

Green Bay is 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games following an SU win and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Conversely, Dallas is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games against a team with a winning road record.

NFL Betting Pick: Green Bay +2.5

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at L.A. Rams (3-1)

When: Sunday, October 8, 2017, 4:05 PM ET
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
NFL Odds: L.A. Rams -2.5
Total: 47

Latest NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

  • Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
  • Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing LA Rams
  • LA Rams is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
  • LA Rams is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Analysis

The Los Angeles Rams have been transformed better than Optimus Prime by the hiring of head coach Sean McVay!
After floundering under former head coach Jeff Fisher for years, the Rams are now an offensive monster that is ranked first in the league in scoring at a whopping 35.5 points per game. Despite pounding Indianapolis senseless in their 46-18 win this past Sunday, I remain skeptical at best about Russell Wilson and Seattle at this point.

Nevertheless, I’m going to urge you to back the more experienced Seahawks to get the outright road win in this Week 5 NFC West divisional matchup by harassing Jared Goff and the suddenly high-scoring Rams while getting their second straight impressive outing from their own offense after lighting up the Colts this past weekend. Despite their high-scoring ways, Los Angeles is giving up a generous 26.2 points per game defensively to rank 28th in points allowed. While the majority of key ATS trends surrounding this matchup points to an ATS cover by the Rams, I’m going to pick Seattle simply because I sense they’re desperate!

NFL Betting Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2.5

*Updated on October 6th, 2017