Best Early NFL Betting ATS Picks for Week 16
Posted by Daniel Strum on Tuesday,December 22, 2015 2:41, EDT in
Welcome to NFL Week 16 early ATS picks. We have prepared a weekly article where I will be taking you through the best NFL betting picks against the spread for this second-last week of the 2015 NFL season. So let’s begin!
Best Early NFL Betting ATS picks for Week 16
San Diego at Oakland
When: Thursday, December 24th at 8:25 PM ET
Odds: Oakland -5
Analysis: Although Oakland is 3-0 ATS in its last three games against the Chargers, they come into this game with a 2-5 SU record for the season, underlining their struggles at home. This presents the Chargers, who are coming off a strong home win over the Dolphins, a chance to keep the game close to cover the spread. All that needs to happen is for dual-threat offensive weapon Danny Woodhead (3 receiving TDs and 1 rushing TD vs. Miami, 2 rushing TDs in the 37-29 loss to Oakland earlier in the season) and QB Philip Rivers to continue their solid partnership, taking advantage of Oakland’s 29th-ranked passing defense.
Pick: San Diego (+5)
Washington at Philadelphia
When: Saturday, December 26th at 8:25 PM ET
Odds: Philadelphia -3
Analysis: This is a pretty straightforward pick— Sam Bradford and the Eagles offense are far from stable, yet Kirk Cousins and his Redskins team are enjoying a surging form that included a road win over the Bears in Week 14, their first road win of the season. With that, I fancy Kirk Cousins continuing a stellar form and getting the better of Philly to claim the win, or cover the spread, at the very least.
Pick: Washington (+3)
Carolina at Atlanta
When: Sunday, December 27th at 1:00 PM ET
Odds: Carolina -7
Analysis: Just -6.5 point in favor of Carolina? Are you kidding me?!? Haven’t you guys been watching Cam Newton having an otherworldly season? As long as Cam Newton is starting and not rested for the playoffs, I’m sticking with the undervalued Panthers for another solid win, obviously with a cover of the spread.
Pick: Carolina (-7)
New England at NY Jets, Pick: NY Jets (+3)
When: Sunday, December 27th at 1:00 PM ET
Odds: New England -3
Analysis: It is impressive and commendable that the Pats have survived numerous injuries to get to a remarkable 12-2 record, but after they suffered another series of key injuries in Week 15, I am doubtful if they’ll be a match for the stubborn Jets, who are enjoying one of their best runs of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a man brimming with confidence, and New York’s defense is on the surge, giving up just 16 points in their last four outings and is solidly complemented with the No. 1 in run defense in the NFL per DVOA. With that, I expect the Jets to hang close to cover this spread, or even deliver an outright upset win at home.
Pick: NY Jets (+3)
Green Bay at Arizona
When: Sunday, December 27th at 4:25 PM ET
Odds: Arizona -4.5
Analysis: Like most big games, this game will highly likely be decided by the playing QBs and the nature of the defenses. Keeping that in mind, Arizona is impressively allowing just 19.4 points and 322.4 total yards per game, and are 3-0 SU in their last three home games. Meanwhile, Green Bay is placed fifth in scoring defense (18.9 points allowed per game), 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three road games, meaning something’s gotta give this Sunday. Unfortunately for Green Bay, Arizona ranks best in the league in total yards per game (417.5), including third in passing yards (299.1) and 11th in rushing (118.4). This could be a concern for the Packers who are ranked 22nd in the league in defending against run and have been leaking mega yardages through the air. Added to the fact that Arizona’s Carson Palmer has been playing better football than Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, and Arizona’s running game is superior to Green Bay’s at the moment, the Cardinals should offer best value in this game for the SU and the cheap four points.
Pick: Arizona (-4.5)
Other Sunday NFL ATS Picks for Week 16
• Houston at Tennessee, Pick: Houston*
• Cleveland at Kansas City, Pick: Kansas City (-12.5)
• Chicago at Tampa Bay, Pick: Chicago (+2.5)
• Jacksonville at New Orleans, Pick: Jacksonville (+3.5)
• NY Giants at Minnesota, Pick: Minnesota (-4)
• Indianapolis at Miami, Pick: Miami*
• Dallas at Buffalo, Pick: Buffalo (-5.5)
• San Francisco at Detroit, Pick: Detroit (-8.5)
• Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Pick: Pittsburgh (-10.5)
• St. Louis at Seattle, St. Louis (+13.5)
Cincinnati at Denver
When: Monday, December 28th at 8.30 PM ET
Odds: Denver -3.5
Analysis: After watching Cincy’s A.J. McCarron impress in his first career start, completing 15-of-21 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown for a 115.6 passer rating in the 24-14 win over San Francisco; I am concerned about whether or not Brock Osweiler/Peyton Manning will measure up to the task. Even so, this is a must-win game for the Broncos, and coach Gary Kubiak will be rallying up his troops for a big home performance, so I don’t see the Bengals coming out with a win here, or even keeping the game close.
Pick: Denver (-3.5)
