Should You Bet on a Defense or Offense in Super Bowl LIV

Should You Bet on a Defense or Offense in Super Bowl LIV

Written by on January 21, 2020

The Super Bowl is unlike any other sporting event on the planet. Not only does it attract wagers on the spread line, moneyline, and total, but it also attracts prop wagering. The different wagers we can make means we must change how we approach our handicapping. When it comes to the Super Bowl, we might want to consider our handicapping from an offense or defense perspective. Which will reign in Super Bowl 54? Will the offenses click? Or, will the defenses shut down the offenses? Check out a Super Bowl LIV analysis based on this handicapping method.

Should You Bet on a Defense or Offense in Super Bowl LIV

  • When: Sunday, Feb. 2 at 6:30 pm ET
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
  • TV: FOX

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV

  • Spread: Chiefs -2
  • Moneyline: 49ers +110 / Chiefs -130
  • Over/Under: 55

Why bet on offense in Super Bowl LIV?

The most simple explanation is the betting action. The Super Bowl 54 over/under total opened at around 51 points. Within 2 days that total has climbed to 55. That’s a 4-point add to the opening line.

The reason? Both teams score at will. Kansas City dumped 51 onto the Houston Texans in the divisional playoffs. The Chiefs scored 35 against Tennessee. KC averages 28.2 points per. That ranks fifth in the NFL.

San Francisco averages 29.9 points per. That ranks second in the NFL. The 49ers scored 27 points against Minnesota in their divisional playoff win. They scored 37 against Green Bay in the NFC Championship.

Another reason to bet on offense? Both teams are led by creative play-calling head coaches. Andy Reid, the Chiefs’ HC, is one of the most creative offensive play-callers in NFL history. Kyle Shanahan, SF’s head coach, called plays for the Atlanta Falcons in their 2017 Super Bowl loss to New England. Both coaches call run and pass plays. Neither is afraid to mix it up.

Why bet on defense in Super Bowl LIV?

Even though both teams are great on offense, we shouldn’t discount the defensive play of either. San Francisco fields the second-ranked defense in the NFL based on yards allowed. Opponents pass for a low 169.2 yards per game versus SF. That ranks first. Teams averaged 19.4 points per game against the 49ers.

Overall defensive stats for the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t bad. In fact, the Chiefs allowed fewer points per, 19.3, than the 49ers do. The real reason to like the Chiefs defense, though, is because of how it’s played in KC’s last 8 games.

3-of-8 opponents scored 21 points or more against Kansas City. The L.A. Chargers scored 21 in Week 17. The Houston Texans scored 31 in the divisional game. In the AFC Championship, Tennessee scored 24.

Both defenses have played well. Also, the over/under total implies a 30-26 or 28-28 game. That might be asking too much from either offense.

Should You Bet on Offense or Defense in SB 54 Final Analysis

Although both defenses have played well, we can’t discount a couple of things. First, Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City’s quarterback, is on fire. Mahomes posted an 8 to 0 TD to interception ratio in the playoffs.

Second, we can’t underestimate San Francisco’s rushing attack. The 49ers rushed for 285 yards from 42 carries against Green Bay. In the win over Minnesota, SF rushed for 186 yards. The Vikings allow an average of 108 rushing yards per game.

Both coaches will exploit the holes in each defense. As good as the 49ers’ secondary is, they can’t expect success playing man-to-man against Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. If the Chiefs put the eighth man in the box, Jimmy Garoppolo is a good enough quarterback to make them pay.

It means we should start our handicapping from an offense perspective. Bet on offense to cash in Super Bowl 54.

 

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