NFL Odds: Can Jags Cover Spread Against Powerful Patriots?

Posted by Daniel Strum on September 27, 2015 in

The Jacksonville Jaguars may have picked up a surprising win over the mediocre Miami Dolphins in Week 2 to the shock of NFL odds and betting fans, but they’ll be hard-pressed to beat Tom Brady and the powerful New England Patriots who are sure case contenders to get to Superbowl 50 when they square off in their Week 3 meeting on Sunday. Now, let’s find out if the Jaguars have what it takes to cover the huge spread.

Jacksonville at New England Week 3 NFL Game Information and Odds

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 27, 2015
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL Odds: New England -14
Over/Under: 48

New England PatriotsNew England rolled to an emphatic 40-32 Week 2 win over Buffalo that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score suggests. The Patriots easily covered the spread as a 1-point underdog as future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady completed 38 of 59 passes for 466 yards and three touchdowns.  “We had a lot of good plays, but I think we left a lot of plays out there,” Brady said. “But it’s great to be 2-0.”
Rob GronkowskiTight end Rob Gronkowski caught seven passes for 113 yards and one touchdown while Julian Edelman added 11 catches for 97 yards and two scores.
Blake BortlesJacksonville recorded a hard-fought 23-20 win over Miami to cash in as a 5.5-point underdog in Week 2 as quarterback Blake Bortles completed 18 of 33 passes for 273 yards, with two touchdowns, no turnovers and no sacks. Wide receiver Allen Robinson caught six passes for a career-high 155 yards and two scores. “From our point of view, we expected this outcome,” Bortles said.

Game Analysis:

A whopping 70 percent of public bettors likes New England to cover the spread as two-touchdown favorites and so do I after watching New England through two games.
Tom BradyDespite Jacksonville’s sunning Week 2 win over Miami, I don’t think there’s any way the Jags can slow down Brady and new England far more potent offense. The Patriots are averaging 18.0 points per game more than Jacksonville (16.0 ppg) and while they do allow 6.5 points more per game defensively, I believe the Patriots are good for the ATS cover, mostly because it seems like Brady is on a mission after beating the NFL in round 1 of Deflategate.
Patriots vs BillsThe Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an SU win and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in the month of September. The Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an SU win and a bankroll-boosting 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. Last but not least, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings while the Jaguars are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road dates against the Pats.
64 percent of the betting public likes the Over, but I don’t. Just two of the last 10 meetings between these AFC rivals have topped this game’s 47.5-point O/U Total and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams.

The Pick: New England 31 Jacksonville 14