Week 3 NFL Betting: Can Niners Bounce Back vs NFC West Rival Arizona?

Posted by Alex Murphy on Sunday,September 27, 2015 7:16, EST in

The San Francisco 49ers got humbled in a big way the last time out after opening the 2015 NFL betting season with a surprising win. Now, NFL bettors need to know if the Niners can bounce back and cover the spread against an Arizona Cardinals team that has looked fantastic through two games.

San Francisco at Arizona

When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, September 27, 2015
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
NFL Odds: Arizona -6
Over/Under: 44

Arizona beat the Chicago Bears senseless in their 48-23 Week 2 win to easily cover the NFL betting odds as a 2-point favorite. Veteran quarterback Carson Palmer led the charge by completing 17 of 24 passes for 185 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. Veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald turned back the clock by catching eight passes for 112 yards and three touchdowns.

arizona-cardinals

Like the aforementioned Bears, San Francisco also got beaten senseless in their 43-18 Week 2 loss against Pittsburgh while never coming close to covering the spread as a 6-point road dog.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick completed 33 of 46 pass attempts for 335 yards and two touchdowns, but the Niners couldn’t stop Ben Roethlisberger, wide receiver Antonio Brown or running back DeAngelo Williams as the trio repeatedly torched Frisco.

Game Analysis

A whopping 66 percent of public bettors likes Arizona to cover the spread but I disagree. Despite their Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh, I’ve been pretty impressed with San Francisco’s play through two games and I believe they’re going to bring a great effort in this NFC West divisional matchup.

san-francisco-49ers

I know the Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games and a bankroll-boosting 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall, but the Cards are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games against San Francisco and just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings against the Niners overall.

I know that elite head coach Jim Harbaugh no longer coaches San Francisco, but with the underdog in this series going 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, I like the Niners to cover the spread in a game that looks like a classic field goal contest to me.

56 percent of public bettors also like the Over, but again, I disagree with public opinion.

Check out these key Over/Under Trends supporting my pick.

Under is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 vs. NFC West.
Under is 5-0 in 49ers last 5 games following an ATS loss.
Under is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 7-2 in 49ers last 9 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games in Week 3.
Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 games in September.

The Pick: Arizona 21 San Francisco 17