There are plenty of games on the Week 17 NFL schedule that has meaning from a playoff perspective. Miami at Buffalo isn’t one of them, and in fact, it benefits both to lose and perhaps improve draft positioning. The Bills are short NFL lines favorites at Mybookie Sportsbook to finish the season on a winning note vs the Dolphins.
Dolphins vs Bills NFL Week 17 Spread & Expert Pick
- When: Sunday, 1 PM ET
- Where: New Era Field, Buffalo
- TV: CBS
- Radio: SiriusXM/NFL
- Live Stream: NFL League Pass
- NFL Week 17 Spread: Buffalo Bills -3.5 (Total 38.5)
- Clear: -3°C/27°F
- Humidity: 60%
- Precipitation: 0%
- Cloud Cover: 13%
- Wind: 6 mph WSW
- Stadium Type: Open
Buffalo lost in Miami in Week 13, 21-17. Buffalo defensive tackle Jordan Phillips drew a costly penalty for taunting his former team, setting up a touchdown with nine minutes left that helped the Fins rally for the win. Miami won despite being outgained 415-175. Ryan Tannehill threw three TD passes. Josh Allen threw for 231 yards and ran for 135 for Buffalo. The Bills drove 65 yards in the final 2 1/2 minutes but came up short when a completion to Zay Jones at the 6 was overturned by a replay review.
Why Bet on Miami?
The Fins have nothing to play for after losing 17-7 at home to Jacksonville on Sunday to have their playoff hopes end. Ryan Tannehill completed 15-of-22 passes for 146 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and three rushes for 22 yards. Tannehill’s worst pass came on a double-clutch, telegraphed interception that Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith returned for a score. The Dolphins’ pass protection also failed, allowing three sacks and seven hits among only 25 Tannehill dropbacks.
This could be Tannehill’s last game as Miami QB and Adam Gase’s final game as Miami’s head coach. Gase said Ryan Tannehill will start this game. With Tannehill’s future in some question, there was a thought the Dolphins would see what they have in David Fales. Tannehill has started 10 games in 2018, passing for 1,831 yards, 17 touchdowns and posting a 99.0 quarterback rating. His rating is 11th in the NFL this season and he’s posted a rating of 115-plus in four of his 10 starts.
Top cornerback Xavien Howard is in question after missing the past three with a knee injury. Really no point in playing him. Howard was named the team MVP this week, joining Sam Madison (1999) and Brent Grimes (2013) as only cornerbacks to win the honor. Howard is tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions despite missing those three games due to injury. He has helped the Dolphins rank second in the NFL with 20 interceptions and third with 27 turnovers forced. His eight turnovers (seven interceptions and one fumble recovery) are most in the NFL this season.
Miami has 12 touchdowns of 50-plus yards this season, most in franchise history, topping the previous mark of nine set in 2016 in Gase’s first season as Dolphins head coach. By comparison, the Dolphins had three touchdowns of 50 yards or longer in 2017.
Why Bet on Buffalo?
The Bills were 24-12 losers in New England last week but continue to play hard. Buffalo came into the game with the 10th ranked run defense, giving up an average of just under 105 yards per game on the ground, but New England rumbled for a total of 273 yards, a season-high against the Bills and the second-most rushing yards in a game in Bill Belichick’s 19-year tenure with the Patriots.
Josh Allen completed 20-of-41 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, adding five carries for 30 additional yards. Both of Allen’s interceptions were bad decisions. The rookie can’t throw much but can sure run. Allen’s average depth of throw is 11.7 yards this season. That is second-highest among QBs with 100+ attempts since 2007 (2011 Tim Tebow – 12.6).
Robert Foster caught 4-of-7 targets for 52 yards in the loss. He could have had a much bigger day but could not haul in what likely would have been an 82-yard touchdown in the first quarter. Foster beat Stephon Gilmore down the right sideline but lost a perfectly-lofted deep ball in the sun.
Keith Ford rushed seven times for 33 yards in the Bills’ Week 16 loss. Ford “started” as LeSean McCoy served a one-play punishment for an unspecified violation. Keith Ford rushed seven times for 33 yards in the Bills’ Week 16 loss to the Patriots, adding two receptions for 14 yards.
Bills coach Sean McDermott said Wednesday that he appreciates how McCoy was “accountable” for the “situation” that led to him not starting last Sunday. McDermott said he has “moved on” from the discipline and reiterated that he sees McCoy as part of the team’s future. McCoy will almost certainly set career lows in both rushing yards (488) and yards per carry (3.2) while tying a career low in rushing touchdowns (2).
The Bills may have three healthy running backs for a game for the first time in three games on Sunday. That’s because Chris Ivory in his return from a shoulder injury was a full participant at practice Wednesday. Ivory has been an inactive player for each of the last two games.
Dolphins vs Bills NFL Week 17 Betting Trends
- Favorite is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings
- Home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings
- Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games
- Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
- Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo’s last 13 games
Expert NFL Betting Prediction for Dolphins vs Bills
Dolphins don’t want to be there – buy it down to -2.5 and take Buffalo