Although most sports networks like ESPN, CBS Sports, and the NFL Network have already broadcast their analyst picks, Fox Sports hasn’t yet. Instead, Fox is intent on sticking with their proprietary football picking software to tell us who wins on Sunday. But if you’re not into software to make your picks, you can always check our Super Bowl LIII lines at MyBookie.
Fox Sports Super Bowl LIII Picks
Fox Sports Likes the Patriots, but Not By a Lot
Fox Sports says that they simulate each NFL game 501 times. From those simulations, they come up with an average score and winning percentage. Check out what they came up with for Super Bowl LIII.
Super Bowl LIII Scorer: New England Patriots 27.6 vs L.A. Rams 24.4
The Patriots winning percentage is 57.5%. The percentage implies that if the Rams and Patriots played 10 times, the Patriots would win close to 6 out of 10. That’s not as huge of an endorsement as you might think. Consider the odds.
The Patriots moneyline is -145. The Rams moneyline is +115. That’s a major odds difference. Based on Fox Sports’ percentage, the Patriots should win, but are they worth a wager on the moneyline at -145 compared to the Rams at +115? That’s a question you must ask yourself if you believe in the Fox Sports analysis.
Patriots Should Cover 56.1% of the time
In Fox Sports’ analysis, the Patriots covered 56% of the time. If players believe in the analysis, they must again make a decision based on value. 56% doesn’t say the Patriots are a lock to cover. The line has gone from New England -1.5 to New England -2.5. Yes, all the money’s on the Pats, but think about this way: to wager on New England, you must pay a 20% vig as opposed to the standard 10% vig.
The Patriots are at -2.5, -120. That means the cost to back the Patriots is double the usual cost to back a team to cover in a standard football game. Is New England worth it? Probably not if you believe Fox Sports is right on at only 56% ATS coverage.
Under 57.5 is 69.5%
Going under 57.5, based on what Fox Sports says, should yield a win 69.5% of the time. That’s actually a strong trend because the total opened at 58.5. However, the total on MyBookie is now at 58. That makes under a really strong play if you believe in the Fox Sports prediction.
Make sure to take into account the vig, odds, and your own handicapping before blindly following Fox Sports.
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