Green Bay at Dallas NFC Divisional Round Odds & Picks
If a Packers-Cowboys playoff matchup sounds familiar, it should. Sunday will be the eighth postseason meeting all-time between the Packers and Cowboys, which will tie it for the most common postseason matchup in NFL history. The home team has won the last six in this postseason series. And Dallas is a home favorite in NFL betting for this terrific matchup.
Green Bay at Dallas NFC Divisional Round Odds, Pick & TV Info
Why Bet on Green Bay?
Green Bay defeated the New York Giants 38-13 last week to advance to the Divisional Playoffs. The Packers have won seven consecutive games, outscoring opponents 223-125 during that span. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who passed for 362 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s Wild Card victory, has a 100.3 career postseason passer rating, one of four quarterbacks in NFL history to have a 100+ rating (minimum 150 attempts). Green Bay wide receiver Randall Cobb had five receptions for 116 yards and tied the NFL postseason single-game record with three touchdown catches.
Rodgers has compiled this stat line during the Pack’s seven-game winning streak: 2,029 passing yards, 19 TDs, 69.6% completion percentage, 121.7 passer rating. He hasn’t been intercepted since Nov. 13. But the Packers lost top receiver Jordy Nelson to broken ribs vs. the Giants. No receiver in the NFL caught more passes outside the painted numbers on the field than Nelson did this year. Of his 97 catches in the regular season, 59 came outside the numbers. Seattle’s Doug Baldwin (53) and Oakland’s Amari Cooper (51) were the only other receivers with more than 50 catches outside the numbers.
Rodgers has completed 80.4 percent of passes thrown to Nelson during the Packers’ current seven-game winning streak. But even without Nelson for the final two-plus quarters against the Giants, Rodgers thrived.
Still, Nelson’s return to full health after missing the 2015 season with a knee injury is a big reason for the Packers’ second-half surge. The offense struggled without him all last season and won’t function at its best if he can’t take the field. Nelson and Rodgers have a trust level that goes beyond anything he has with any of the other options.
The Packers have averaged 30.4 points per game on the road in the postseason since 2006, No. 1 in the NFL over that span. They are the only team to average more than 26.0 points per game on the road in the playoffs since 2006.
Including the regular and postseason, Green Bay has won five of the last six games against Dallas. During that span, only one game has taken place in Dallas, a 37-36 Packers victory during the 2013 regular season.
Why Bet on Dallas?
The Cowboys won the NFC East and secured the No. 1 seed in the conference with a 13-3 record. Dallas has qualified for the postseason 32 times, tied with the Packers and Giants for the most in league history.
Dallas is the only team in NFL history to have a rookie pass for 20 touchdowns (quarterback Dak Prescott, 23) and a rookie rush for 15 touchdowns (running back Ezekiel Elliott, 15) in the same season. Prescott, whose 13 wins are tied for the most by a rookie starting quarterback in NFL history, had a 104.9 passer rating, the highest mark by a rookie in league annals. Elliott led the NFL with 1,631 rushing yards, the third-most by a rookie in league history.
The Cowboys’ biggest advantage coming into the playoffs might be their health. Owner and general manager Jerry Jones said the Cowboys will have cornerback Morris Claiborne and defensive linemen Tyrone Crawford, DeMarcus Lawrence and Terrell McClain available Sunday. Claiborne missed the final nine regular-season games because of a groin injury suffered Oct. 30 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Lawrence did not play the final three games of the regular season because of a back injury. Crawford missed the last two with a left shoulder injury. McClain did not play in the season finale because of an ankle injury.
Including the postseason, the all-time series between the teams is tied at 17. Dallas knocked off Green Bay 30-16 at Lambeau Field in Week 6. Dallas has hosted Green Bay five times in the playoffs, winning each of the last four by an average of 14.5 points per game. The only loss came in the 1966 NFL Championship at the Cotton Bowl.
In last season’s wild-card round, all four road teams prevailed. However, home teams haven’t lost a playoff game since then, winning 10 straight non-neutral site contests.
Green Bay at Dallas NFC Divisional Round Pick:
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games overall.
Take the points in NFL odds and go over the total.