The talk of the NFL World is Tom Brady’, and the biggest concern is the effect of his four-game suspension on the NFL Odds. You want to know what we think about the whole Brady and New England Patriots vs. 2015 NFL odds impact?
Following the announcement of the suspension, the Patriots (who were sitting at 6/1 odds to win Super Bowl 50 after their 28-24 win in Super Bowl XLIX) dropped to 10/1 odds. Now, for the odds to drop decently to 10/1, it basically means that the Patriots are still favored to reach the playoffs (just like other favored teams such as the Seahawks, Colts, Broncos and Cowboys). The Super Bowl drop therefore doesn’t make much sense since Brady will miss the first four games AND NOT the playoffs. So, should the Pats be able to make it to the Playoffs, then the suspension won’t be a big deal because Brady will be available, will it?
AFC East division (3 games ahead of Buffalo), but they also had an AFC-best 12-4 record, slotting above other strong conference contenders like Indianapolis, Denver, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati (most of whom had better starts than the Pats). Therefore, whereas Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis and a handful of other teams in the AFC figure to more competitive in 2015, one or two losses by the Pats in their first 4 games doesn’t necessarily point to the Pats missing the playoffs, or even failing to get a conference-best record.
The four games that Brady will miss are against Pittsburgh (at home), Buffalo (on the road), Jacksonville (at home) and Dallas (on the road). Certainly, the road tests against Buffalo and Dallas won’t be easy, but with the Bills lacking a formidable QB, New England could take care of them. Similarly, taking care of Jacksonville should be possible for the Pats. Therefore, in a worst-case scenario, I’d say the Pats would go 2-2 in those games, probably losing to the Steelers and Cowboys, which shouldn’t be that bad for the Pats who were also 2-2 after 4 games in 2014.
New England’s divisional opponents—Buffalo, Miami and NY Jets—could possibly benefit from a slow start by the Pats, assuming all of them will have improved seasons in 2015 and get off to strong starts. However, with the Pats meeting only Buffalo in the first four games, the advantage could even out as the season goes on and New England meets (and beats the divisional opponents), bearing in mind the Pats went 4-2 against divisional opposition in 2014. The fact that the Pats have dropped from being -200 favorites to -150 favorites to win the AFC East crown should thus be a great opportunity for you to buy New England on its discounted price.
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