Indianapolis at Denver Odds & Free Pick

Posted by Jordan Walterss on September 16, 2016 in

The Indianapolis Colts were on the wrong end of a last-second result in Week 1, while the reigning Super Bowl champion Broncos were on the right end of a missed kick. Indy visits Denver on Sunday in one of the marquee games of Week 2. The Broncos are favored in NFL betting.

Here’s a Closer Look at the Indianapolis at Denver Odds, Free Pick & TV Info

When: Sunday, Sept. 18, 4:25 PM ET
Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver
Radio: Indianapolis / Denver
Opening NFL Lines: Broncos -6 (46.5)

Why Bet on Indianapolis?

The Colts fell 39-35 to Detroit in Week 1 as the Lions’ Matt Prater hit a late 43-yard field goal. Andrew Luck nearly rallied the Colts from an 18-point deficit to another last-minute victory when he threw a 6-yard TD pass to Jack Doyle with 37 seconds to go. Adam Vinatieri’s extra point gave Indy a 35-34 lead. But against Indy’s depleted secondary, Lions QB Matthew Stafford found receivers who turned short catches into big gains. Four plays later, Prater got his chance, and he hit it right. The Lions tacked on two points when the Colts were called for a safety on the kick return.

Sunday was the 18th time that the Colts had given up at least 30 points since 2012. They’re 3-15 in those games. It didn't help that the Colts went into the game without cornerback Vontae Davis (ankle), cornerback Darius Butler (ankle), defensive lineman Henry Anderson (knee) and safety Clayton Geathers (foot). Then they lost cornerback Patrick Robinson (concussion) and safety T.J. Green (ankle).

Colts DC Ted Monachino on the final drive where they failed to stop Detroit in Week 1: “(Coach Chuck Pagano) absolutely has to trust us with 37 seconds left to win the game.”

Luck passed for 385 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions for a 119.5 passer rating in the loss. Luck was incredibly effective when throwing deep down the middle of the field, where he completed 11-of- 13 passes for 203 yards and three touchdowns on passes at least 10 yards downfield. Luck has 15,223 career passing yards and reached 15,000 passing yards in his 56th career game, tied for the second-fastest in NFL history. Stafford accomplished the feat in his 53rd game while Marc Bulger, Hall of Famer Dan Marino and Kurt Warner reached 15,000 passing yards in their 56th game.

Why Bet on Denver?

The Broncos beat Carolina 21-20 in a Super Bowl rematch on Thursday in Week 1. Graham Gano missed a 50-yard field goal with four seconds remaining. Denver had three sacks of Cam Newton in Week 1, with DeMarcus Ware (1.5 sacks) and Von Miller (1.0) closing things out. An edge presence of Ware and Miller, plus one of the louder stadiums in the NFL, will be the challenge for a Colts offensive line that protected well for a large majority of Week 1.

Trevor Siemian went 18-for- 26 Thursday, passing for 178 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Broncos’ opener in his first NFL start. He relied on a ground attack that put up 148 rushing yards in their win over Carolina, the sixth most of any team last week. Coach Gary Kubiak has since praised Siemian for is “calm” during the times the Broncos were “in position for points.” The Broncos advanced to the Panthers’ 30-yard line or deeper on six possession, scoring three times to go with a Devontae Booker fumble and Siemian’s two interceptions.

Kubiak said after Wednesday's practice his expects wide receiver Demaryius Thomas to play Sunday against the Colts. Thomas was limited in practice Wednesday, but Kubiak said he saw enough. The contest will mark the 23rd all-time meeting between the teams in the regular season, with the Broncos holding a 12-10 advantage. Indianapolis defeated Denver, 27-24, in their last matchup on Nov. 8, 2015 at Lucas Oil Stadium. That was Luck's final game of the season as he lacerated his kidney during the game.

Sunday’s game will be the fifth time in four seasons the Broncos have faced the Colts, including Denver’s loss in the AFC divisional game to close out the 2014 season. This will be the first Colts-Broncos game without Peyton Manning involved since Week 5, 1993, when John Elway was the Broncos starting QB.

My Free  Pick

Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Denver.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.

Going against those NFL betting trends and taking Denver and under.