Jimmy Garoppolo’s NFL Props for the 2016 Season
The big news in the NFL this week was that the U.S. Court of Appeals upheld the NFL’s appeals court win on reinstating Tom Brady’s four-game suspension to start the 2016 season for Brady’s role in Deflategate. Remember, Brady was originally to serve that suspension last year but won a lower-court ruling. So now all Brady can do is try to get the U.S. Supreme Court to hear the case, but no one believe that will happen. So could backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo step in and “Wally Pipp” Brady? Here are some NFL betting props to expect when the season starts.
Let’s Take a Closer Look at Jimmy Garoppolo’s NFL Props for the 2016 Season
GAROPPOLO’S RECORD – 1ST 4 GAMES
ZERO GAMES WON: +900
1 GAME WON: +500
2 GAMES WON: +150
3 GAMES WON: +125
4 GAMES WON: +165
GAROPPOLO’S TOTAL PASSING TDS IN 1ST 4 GAMES
NO PASSING TDS IN 1ST 4 GAMES: +2000
1 PASSING TD: +1500
2 PASSING TDS: +700
3 PASSING TDS: +600
4 PASSING TDS: +500
5 PASSING TDS: +300
6 PASSING TDS: +200
7 PASSING TDS: +250
8 PASSING TDS: +450
9 PASSING TDS: +600
10 OR MORE PASSING TDS: +550
GAROPPOLO’S TOTAL PASSING YDS IN 1ST 4 GAMES
350 OR LESS PASSING YDS: +750
351 – 550 PASSING YDS: +300
551 – 750 PASSING YDS: +225
751 – 950 PASSING YDS: +150
951 – 1150 PASSING YDS: +325
1151 – 1350 PASSING YDS: +550
1351 OR MORE PASSING YDS: +700
If you don’t know, the Yankees’ Pipp is considered to be one of the best power hitters of the dead ball era. He is now best remembered as the man who lost his starting role to Lou Gehrig at the beginning of Gehrig’s streak of 2,130 consecutive games. According to a popular legend, Pipp asked to sit due to a headache.
Garoppolo has never started an NFL game and has attempted 31 total regular-season passes in garbage time since being a second-round pick out of Eastern Illinois. He will start games Week 1 at Arizona, Week 2 vs. Miami, Week 3 on a Thursday vs. Houston and Week 4 vs. Buffalo. Brady would return Week 5 at Cleveland. On the bright side for the Patriots, those last three games Brady will miss are at home, where the Patriots are an NFL best 101-19 since 2001. In addition, the Patriots have won 72.7 percent of games in September over the last 10 years, also best in the league.
As for the defenses that Garoppolo will face, Arizona was No. 8 in the NFL against the pass last year, allowing 230 yards per game. It gave up 24 TD passes. Miami ranked 21st in the NFL in allowing 250 yards in their per game and gave up 31 touchdowns. Houston was No. 3 against the pass, allowing 210 yards per game and 24 TDs. And Buffalo was 19th in allowing 248 yards per game along with 30 touchdowns.
When it comes to preparations for temporarily supplanting perhaps the greatest quarterback in NFL history, perhaps no one is better qualified for the job than Garoppolo. He has spent the past two offseasons getting ready to guide the perennial AFC East champions through the first month of the regular season while awaiting word on Brady’s suspension decisions.
Garoppolo played well as part of his big dress rehearsal in preseason last year, completing 61 of 80 passes for 554 yards, two TDs and two INTs while posting a solid 92.4 passer rating. The Patriots don’t usually play Brady much in the preseason — he can play in preseason games and participate in all practices until the regular season starts. But he’s a veteran and won’t need much preseason work.
Given more prime reps in spring practices, Garoppolo was confident in his work with the first team but echoed coach Bill Belichick’s mantra of the need for continued improvement.
“I think it’s going the right way, going in the right direction,” Garoppolo said last month. “Obviously, there’s a long way to go. I’m only going into Year 3 now. There’s tons of things to improve on. If we keep going the right way, we’ll be all right.”
Keep in mind that the Patriots have had to deal with a Brady absence before. In the 2008 season, Brady suffered a season-ending ACL tear in the first game of the year. Backup quarterback Matt Cassel came in to replace the legend and led the Patriots to an 11-5 record. Despite the winning season, the 11-win-team became the first to not make the playoffs since the NFL expanded playoffs to include 12 teams in 1990. Cassel played so well that year that the Chiefs gave up a lot to trade for him and eventually gave him a nice extension. Cassel had one Pro Bowl season in K.C. but otherwise has been lousy since.
Garoppolo will have the best duo of tight ends in the NFL in Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett to throw to and basically the entire defense ready to go.
My Betting Prediction
I’m not going to speculate on Garoppolo’s numbers those first four games, but I’m leaning that the Pats go 3-1. Road teams have a tough time in those Thursday night affairs, as the Houston game is, and the other two at Gillette are against division opponents who haven’t had much success in Foxborough in recent years.