Miami Dolphins Postseason Betting Analysis

Posted by Eric Williams on Wednesday,January 4, 2017 6:40, EST in

The Miami Dolphins (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) have had a surprising 2016 campaign in the first year of the Adam Gase era. While the Fins reached the double-digit win plateau and earned a wild card playoff berth in the process, they surely would like nothing better than to pull off the huge upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers in their playoff opener.

If you need to know what lies in store for the upstart Dolphins as they get set for their online betting playoff opener this weekend, then you’ve come to the right place, thanks to the expert postseason betting analysis that you’re going to get on Miami’s first playoff appearance in a decade. Let’s get started.

A Closer Look At The Miami Dolphins NFL Postseason Betting Analysis

 

 

Super Bowl 51 Odds: +6000

AFC Championship Odds: +3000

Why Bet on the Dolphins

The first reason to bet on the Miami Dolphins this postseason is that they’ll hit the playoffs playing solid football, despite getting spanked by New England in their regular season finale. Miami won three of their final four games and eight of their last 11 overall, so they clearly have some momentum going for them.

The best reason to back the Dolphins however is their understated, but tough defense. Miami finished the regular season ranked a respectable 15th against the pass (242.2 ypg) and 18th in points allowed (23.8 ppg). The Dolphins have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, starting with outstanding defensive linemen Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh.

Not only that, but the Dolphins found out they have a superstar talent in running back Jay Ajayi (1,272 yards) that helped them finish the regular season ranked rank ninth in rushing (114.0 ypg). Miami also has a pair of gifted wide receivers in Jarvis Landry (1,136 yards) and Kenny Stills (9 TDs).

Last but not least, I think another good reason to bet on the Dolphins this postseason is the fact that former starter and ‘franchise’ signal-caller Ryan Tannehill will miss the playoffs in favor of veteran backup Matt Moore.

In three starts and two relief appearances this season, Moore has helped Miami go 4-1 while completing a solid 63.2 percent with eight TD passes and three interceptions while compiling a stellar quarterback rating of 105.6. For me, Moore is simply more of leader than Tannehill and a far better deep-ball passer.

Miami has also compiled a bunch of positive ATS trends that make them look attractive this postseason. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against their AFC conference counterparts and a consistent 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

 

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Why Bet Against the Dolphins

The Dolphins may be in the playoffs, but they’re far from perfect and present several good reasons why you should bet against them this postseason. First and foremost, Miami gave up a whopping 66 points in splitting their last two games against Buffalo and New England and ranked a dismal 29th in total defense (382.6 ypg) and a discouraging 30th against the run (140.4 ypg).

The Dolphins also struggled at times on offense and finished the regular season ranked an uninspiring 24th in total offense (332.8 ypg), 26th in passing (218.8 ypg) and modest 17th in scoring (22.7 ppg).

Miami has also put together some discouraging ATS trends that don’t look very good as they hit the playoffs. The Dolphins are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS loss, 3-7 ATS in their L/10 games against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five road playoff games.

Last but not least, while Adam Gase has been a revelation for the Dolphins this season, the first-year head coach won’t have the edge over any of Miami’s potential opponents this postseason as he’s the most inexperienced coach in the postseason.