If you love Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, then you’re probably jumping for joy with the perennially-powerful Pats set to make their third straight Super Bowl appearance and fourth in the last five seasons.
If you hate the Pats like most everyone outside the state of Massachusetts, and you’re hoping they will fall in their second straight Super Bowl appearance, then you’re probably hoping beyond all hope, that Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams can pull off the big upset over New England when Super Bowl 53 gets underway on Feb. 3 at 6:30 PM ET live from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
No matter how you feel about the Patriots NFL betting faithful, you’re going to get some expert insight on New England that will help you make the most out of all your Super Bowl 53 wagers. Now, before getting started, be sure to download our exclusive Super Bowl LIII bracket, completely free!
New England Patriots Odds to Win Super Bowl LIII
Patriots vs Rams Super Bowl LIII Odds, Preview & Pick
- When: Sunday, February 3, 2019 at 6:30 PM ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
- TV: CBS
- Radio: New England / Los Angeles
- Live Stream: NFL Live
- Super Bowl LIII Odds: New England -2 / Total: 58
The Patriots (13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS, 7-11 O/U) won their final two games of the regular season and reached Super Bowl 53 by spanking the L.A. Chargers 41-28 in the AFC divisional round and then upsetting Kansas City 37-31 in overtime in the AFC Championship game this past weekend.
- Total Yards: 393.40
- Passing Yards: 266.10
- Rushing Yards: 127.30
- Points Scored: 27.20
- Field Goal %: 84.40
Tom Brady and company have covered the chalk in each of their last three games while scoring a stupendous 37 points or more in each contest. As you can see from the chart above, New England is averaging a healthy 27.2 points per game to rank fourth in scoring while ranking inside the top 10 in both, passing and rushing.
- Total Yards: 359.10
- Passing Yards: 246.40
- Rushing Yards: 112.70
- Points Scored: 20.30
- Field Goal %: 86.20
On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots are limiting the opposition to a modest 20.3 points per game defensively to rank an impressive seventh in points allowed. The Patriots do rank an uninspiring 22nd against the pass this season and that could be something the explosive Rams might be able to take advantage of in Super Bowl 53, so that will definitely bear watching.
The Patriots lost a surprising five of their eight regular season road dates, but they managed to snap a two-game skid on the road by beating the Chiefs on Sunday. New England has covered the chalk on both of their playoff games this postseason while playing Over the total both times.
Key ATS Trends
- New England has gone 4-5 SU and ATS in nine road dates this season.
- Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games.
- Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.
- Patriots are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games overall.
- Patriots are 39-18-2 ATS in their last 59 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 82-40-2 ATS in their last 124 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in February.
- Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Super Bowl games.
Key Over/Under Trends
- Over is 7-1 in Patriots last 8 playoff games.
- Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games overall.
- Under is 14-6 in Patriots last 20 games on grass.
- Under is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 53-26 in Patriots last 79 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Expert Betting Insight for the New England Patriots
The Patriots are arguably the most well-balanced team in the entire NFL. Despite lacking a true superstar on offense at the skill positions, the Patriots spread the ball around fantastically this season. Veteran running back James White led New England in touchdowns scored with 12 while rookie running back Sony Michel has rushed for a team-high 931 yards. Veteran wide receiver Julian Edelman has a team-high 850 receiving yards this season while defensive end Trey Flowers has a team-high 7.5 sacks and cornerback Duron Hammond, a team-high four interceptions.
The Patriots have gone 8-2 SU over their last 10 playoff games as a favorite and an impressive 7-3 ATS along the way. The Pats are also an identical 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite. The last time New England was a 2-point favorite in a playoff game, they spanked Pittsburgh 42-27 to easily cover the chalk back on Jan. 23 of 2005.
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