Best OVER and UNDER Win Picks for the 2015 NFL Betting Season

Posted by Alex Murphy on Monday,May 25, 2015 9:25, EST in

Two weeks ago, Las Vegas released its opening 2015 NFL regular season team win totals, and as largely anticipated by most bookies, the numbers were more-or-less the same like the ones from CG Technology, which were released (and analyzed by us) not long ago. In case you haven’t had an opportunity to check out the totals, below are the numbers, including our analysis of the most befitting NFL betting UNDER and OVER totals worthy of your consideration in the 2015 NFL betting lines.

Las Vegas Opening Season Team Win Totals

  • Arizona Cardinals, 8.5, (OVER +130, UNDER -150)
  • Atlanta Falcons, 8.0 (OVER -135, UNDER +115)
  • Baltimore Ravens, 9.0 (OVER +105, UNDER -125)
  • Buffalo Bills, 8.5 (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
  • Carolina Panthers, 8.5 (OVER +115, UNDER -135)
  • Chicago Bears, 7.0 (OVER +130, UNDER -150)
  • Cincinnati Bengals, 8.5, (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
  • Cleveland Browns, 6.5 (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
  • Dallas Cowboys, 9.5 (OVER +120, UNDER -140)
  • Denver Broncos, 10.0 (OVER -130, UNDER +110)
  • Detroit Lions, 8.5 (OVER +120, UNDER -140)
  • Green Bay Packers, 11.0 (OVER +130, UNDER -150)
  • Houston Texans, 8.5 (OVER -120, UNDER EVEN)
  • Indianapolis Colts, 10.5 (OVER -170, UNDER +150)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars, 5.5 (OVER -170, UNDER +150)
  • Kansas City Chiefs, 8.5 (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
  • Miami Dolphins, 9.0 (OVER +110, UNDER -130)
  • Minnesota Vikings, 7.0 (OVER -130, UNDER +110)
  • New England Patriots, 10.5 (OVER -130, UNDER +110)
  • New Orleans Saints, 9.0 (OVER +120, UNDER -140)
  • New York Giants, 8.0 (OVER -140, UNDER +120)
  • New York Jets, 7.0 (OVER -140, UNDER +120)
  • Oakland Raiders, 5.5 (OVER +120, UNDER -140)
  • Philadelphia Eagles, 9.5 (OVER +120, UNDER -140)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers, 8.5 (OVER +110, UNDER -130)
  • San Diego Chargers, 8.0 (OVER -120, UNDER EVEN)
  • San Francisco 49ers, 7.5 (OVER +120, UNDER -140)
  • Seattle Seahawks, 11.0 (OVER +110, UNDER -130)
  • St. Louis Rams, 8.0 (OVER -110, UNDER -110)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6.0 (OVER +120, UNDER -140)
  • Tennessee Titans, 5.5 (OVER EVEN, UNDER -120)
  • Washington Redskins, 6.0 (OVER -110, UNDER -110)

Preliminarily, it is worth noting that, based on the above numbers, it doesn’t look like we’ll be having too many picks (more so on the OVER side) mainly due to issues like the draft and other offseason developments in their calculations, making the projections very close to the reality on the ground. Still, after doing a rigorous analysis of the odds, the following OVER and UNDER picks stand out for us:

Best OVERs for the 2015 NFL Season Team Win Totals

In 2014, NFL bettors witnessed a whopping saw 18 of 32 teams in the league pay on an OVER season total, probably the reason why Las Vegas oddmakers are somewhat mean on their numbers, hoping to limit a recurrence of such a trend. Now, from the list above, here are the teams we strongly feel are worthy OVER picks in the 2015 NFL season team win totals:

*Baltimore Ravens (Our Projection: 12-4; Las Vegas Total: 9)

NFL-Betting-Baltimore-Ravens

The Ravens are looking much improved from the unit that managed to post a 10-6 season in 2014. With most of the early analysis we’ve done pointing to a drop by Cincinnati, the Ravens should be able to go beyond the 10-win mark. Furthermore, Joe Flacco is loaded with more lethal weapons in the wide receiving department, the Ravens have a good coach, and their defense is also looking improved, so taking care of the stubborn Orange-clad Ohio teams (whom they play twice this season) should be possible, en route to a solid season

Carolina Panthers (Our Projection: 9-7, Las Vegas Total: 8½)

2015-NFL-Betting-Carolina-Panthers

The Panthers have proven their worth and strength over the recent years, becoming the first NFC South team in 2014 to rack up back-to-back division titles. Undeniably, 2015 will probably be the toughest of all seasons for Panthers, as New Orleans, Atlanta and Tampa Bay all look to be on the come-up. Nonetheless, after going 7-8-1 in 2014 (with a team that was barely consistent), getting to at least 9 wins should be possible, going by the many positive offseason developments they’ve made.

*Philadelphia Eagles (Our Projection: 10-6, Las Vegas Total: 9½U -140)

NFL-Betting-Philadelphia-Eagles-2015

Other than the Baltimore pick, the Eagles are the other team we strongly feel is a red-hot pick for an OVER. Not only is Coach Chip Kelly a proven master at improving teams, but the Eagles are coming off a decent season. In fact, they could have been better, hadn’t they crumbled at the tail-end of the season due to some injury concerns and lack of depth in the squad. Entering 2015, Kelly is loaded with a full armory of quarterbacks and some quality pieces in both the offense and defense. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (Philly’s main competition) are likely to be affected by losing some of their key players (like DeMarco Murray), while the Giants are good, but still not efficient enough to trouble Philadelphia’s fast-paced unit. Plus, the Eagles were 10-6 in 2014, so why should they regress when they are looking more dangerous than they were last season?

Crucial Note on the OVER bets!

NFL-Betting-Miami-Dolphins-2015

A good number of teams offered some good OVER values in the early total lines released by CG Technology, but with offseason developments, their worth has sort-of been sucked away, so we wouldn’t advise you to still go with those teams here, as their numbers are too dicey to give you a clear betting edge. For example, Green Bay opened 9½ at CG Technology yet are 11 at the Las Vegas SuperBook, Indianapolis was 9½ at CG Technology (but is 10½ at the Las Vegas SuperBook), Miami Dolphins was 8 at CG Technology (but is 9 at the Las Vegas SuperBook), and Oakland was 4½ at CG Technology (but is 5½ at SuperBook). With the value of such teams looking eroded, we’d advise you to stick to Baltimore, Carolina, Philadelphia and maybe San Francisco 49ers (who were project to finish the season at 8-8, yet opened at 7½U -140 at the SuperBook), as they offer near-surefire values.

Best UNDERs for the 2015 NFL Season Team Win Totals

Buffalo Bills (Our Projection: 8-8, Las Vegas Total: 8½ Over)

NFL-Betting-Buffalo-Bills-2015

After posting an OVER season in 2014 with a 9-7 record, the Bills may look like a hot OVER pick to go above 8.5 win next season. However, with the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets all looking to primed for improved seasons, the competition is likely to even out (unlike last season), thus condemning the Bills to drop rather than maintain (or rise above) 2014’s mark.

New York Jets (Our Projection: 6-10, Las Vegas Total: 7 Over -140)

NFL-Betting-New-York-Jets-2015

When we said the Jets will be making a leap in 2015, we didn’t mean they will all-over-a-sudden grow a pair of magical wings and start soaring high up in the NFL. Coming off an UNDER season of 4-12 in 2014, we totally agree that the Jets will be one of the teams to watch in 2015. But with New England, Miami and Buffalo guaranteed to play their hearts out in the AFC East, the Jets look destined for a 6-10 season. If they get so lucky, they would probably rise to 7 wins (at best), and in that case, you’d be to get your money back on a PUSH result.

Oakland Raiders (Our Projection: 5-11, Las Vegas Total: 5½ Under -140)

NFL-Betting-Oakland-Raiders-2015

The Raiders have a new coach in Jack Del Rio and they added a couple of decent players on their roster, so they should be improving in 2015, right? Nah, at least not according to their schedule. With two games against Kansas City Chiefs, two games against Denver, two games against San Diego, and a host of other grueling tests in the AFC, the Raiders look more like a 4-12 or another 5-11 season like in 2014.

Atlanta Falcons (Our Projection: 7-9, Las Vegas Total: 8 Over -120)

NFL-Betting-Atlanta-Falcons-2015

With the Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers figuring to be in contention for a solid 2015 season, the NFC South is likely to live up to its longstanding reputation of being a ring for scrappy dog-fighting, with all the teams coming out of it injured. Therefore, unless the Falcons can outsource the free agency services of their former quarterback Michael Vick to help them manage the dogfight, another below .500 is in the offing for them.

Chicago Bears (Our Projection: 6-10, 7 Under -150)

NFL-Betting-Chicago-Bears-2015

The Bears may have landed a hot draft pick in WR Kevin White, but the only thing that will be smoking in Chicago this season is their cigarette-loving quarterback Jay Cutler. With a harsh out of conference schedule for the Bears, an out-of-sorts signal-caller, and a loaded divisional test against the trio of Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay, new Chicago head coach John Fox will need more than a season to take the Bears to 7-or-more wins.

Other Teams Worth Considering for the UNDER Team Total

NFL-Betting-Cleveland-Browns-2015

Cleveland (6½ Over -110), Tampa Bay (6 Under -140), and Washington (6 Over -110).

Final Remarks

Duly note that the analysis done above is based on the just released numbers. If there are any significant NFL odds movements in the numbers, we will duly analyze them and update you on the same.

Sources: 

CBSSports.com: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/2060558/kevin-white
ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-chiefs