Super Bowl 50 Game Total, OVER vs. UNDER Betting

Posted by Joe Solari on Sunday,January 31, 2016 8:00, EDT in

Unlike the Moneyline and Point Spread Super Bowl 50 odds that have witnessed strong movements since the NFL betting markets were opened on Sunday Night, the Total Betting Lines have stayed more-or-less the same within the region of 44 to 46. There’s still a lot of time for things to change, and if (and when) they do change, we will be first in line to inform you about it and guide you on how to place your OVER/UNDER Super Bowl 50 bets accordingly. In the meantime, let’s work with the total betting numbers we have now (currently placed at 45.5) and figure out where the best value is.

When: Sunday, February 7, 2015
Kickoff: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
Spread: Panthers -6
Moneyline: Carolina -245 vs Denver +205
Game Total: 45.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports 
Listen: Carolina vs Denver

Super Bowl Total Betting History

For starters, each of the last three Super Bowls have delivered OVER totals, finishing with 52, 51 and 65 combined points, respectively. Even so, prior to thee three consecutive OVERs (which in fact matched the longest streak of Super Bowl OVERs since the 4-0 OVER run in the 1980’s), 6 of the previous 8 Super Bowls went UNDER.

On another interesting note, in Super Bowls that totaled at 46 or lower since the year 2000, the OVER has gone 5-0 (Giants vs. Ravens, Buccaneers vs. Raiders, Patriots vs. Panthers, Steelers vs. Cardinals, & Packers vs. Steelers). So, will the 45.5 deliver another OVER in accordance to this trend while pushing the streaking 3-0 OVER mark to 4-0, or will the strong UNDER trend that dominated the previous eight games show up in Super Bowl 50? Well, to answer that, let’s take a look at how the Panthers and Broncos have been performing in total betting.

Carolina and Denver’s OVER/UNDER Total Betting Trends

Of the four total meetings between the Panthers and Broncos, the UNDER is 3-1, though their last meeting in 2012 (which ended 36-14) paid OVER bettors.

As far as recent records are concerned, the OVER is 4-1 in Carolina’s last five games, including the two playoff games against the Seahawks and Cardinals. Meanwhile, the UNDER is 3-2 in Denver’s last five games, including the low-scoring postseason wins against the Steelers and Patriots.

Conclusion and Super Bowl 50 Total Betting Pick

For Carolina, there is no doubt that Cam Newton—even with Denver’s fierce D throwing countless of bodies and weapons at him—will still be able to lead his offense to three or more touchdowns against Denver. For Denver, the most confusing aspect of their game is the fact that Peyton Manning and his offense has been shaky, so it’s not easy to know what to expect from them. It can be a hit, if Manning and his runners rally up for the big game, or a miss, if they continue to struggle, as they’ve done the majority of the season.

That said, I like the OVER trends mentioned above, along with Carolina’s tried-and-proven offense, plus the fact Manning will most likely want to give a memorable performance in his last rodeo. Consequently, OVER 45.5 is my preferred pick here.