Super Bowl LII Betting Analysis: New England Patriots Odds to Win

Super Bowl LII Betting Analysis: New England Patriots Odds to Win

Written by on January 23, 2018

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots come in as the Super Bowl LII betting favorites to beat Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles when they square off on Sunday, February 4, 2018, 6:30 PM ET, live from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Of course, that’s not much of a shock, seeing as how the Pats are the defending Super Bowl champs and have been perennially-powerful ever since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick became joined at the hip back in 2001. What NFL betting enthusiasts need to know is whether the Pats are looking like a good pick against their Super Bowl LII odds and just what those odds look like.

Super Bowl LII Betting Analysis: New England Patriots Odds to Win

  • When: Sunday, February 4, 2018, 6:30 PM ET
  • Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
  • TV: NBC
  • Radio: 98.5 FM
  • Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
  • Super Bowl LII Betting Odds: New England Patriots -5
  • Moneyline & Total: New England Patriots -240 / 48 points

Team Records

  • All: 15-3
  • Home: 8-2
  • Away: 7-1
  • ATS: 12-6
  • Over/Under: 8-10

Early Super Bowl 52 Betting Odds & Prediction for MVP Award

Team Statistics

  • Offensive total yards: 393.78
  • Rush yards: 113.11
  • Passing yards: 280.67
  • Average Score For: 28.72
  • Defensive total yards: 360.94
  • Rush yards allowed: 111.22
  • Passing yards allowed: 249.72
  • Average Score Against: 18.33

Good & Bad News

Brady and the Patriots (12-6 ATS) are 5.5-point favorites to beat Philly in Super Bowl 52 and a -240 Moneyline pick to win outright. Unfortunately, they may not cover either, although I will say that their money line status looks a lot more appealing to me than their stature as a 5.5-point favorite. Brady and company spanked Tennessee 35-14 in the AFC Championship to cash in for betting backers as a 13.5-point home favorite, but they never came close to covering the chalk as a 7.5-point home favorite in their hard-fought 24-20 AFC Championship game win over the feisty Jacksonville Jaguars this past weekend, just as I predicted. Now, with New England going 1-1 ATS this postseason and facing a Philadelphia team that has not only covered the spread twice but done so by winning outright as a home underdog, New England faces a pretty big task to cover the spread. The good news is that New England has been a straight bankroll-boosting bonanza in recent years! Hell, you can throw out their near-perfect 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 playoff games and simply look at the fact that the Pats have gone a consistent 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against a team with a winning record and a completely insane 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games overall and it makes you think they could cover the spread against anyone. The Patriots come in as the Super Bowl LII Betting favorite against the Eagles. The bad news for Patriots fans and NFL bettors that are thinking about backing them in Super Bowl 52 is that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings between the Eagles and Patriots, including Philly’s cover as a touchdown underdog in Super Bowl 39 back in 2005.

Latest Super Bowl LII Betting Trends

  • New England is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games
  • Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
  • Patriots are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

Final Expert Analysis

The underdog has covered the spread in four of the last six Super Bowls and the Pats are just 2-4 ATS in their six Super Bowl appearances. The good news is that New England has covered the spread in each of their last two Super Bowl appearances, including last year as a 3-point favorite against Atlanta. All things considered, New England has been the best problem-solving team in the NFL for years now and they just keep finding new ways to reinvent themselves and get the job done.

Last 10 Super Bowl Champions

  • LI: New England Patriots
  • 50: Denver Broncos
  • XLIX: New England Patriots
  • XLVIII: Seattle Seahawks
  • XLVII: Baltimore Ravens
  • XLVI: New York Giants
  • XLV: Green Bay Packers
  • XLIV: New Orleans Saints
  • XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers
  • XLII: New York Giants