Super Bowl LIII Betting Advice for the 2018 NFL Postseason

Super Bowl LIII Betting Advice for the 2018 NFL Postseason

Written by on December 7, 2018

The final month of the NFL Regular Season is upon us. Most contending teams appear destined to showcase their best in the playoffs. Nobody questions if New England, New Orleans, and the Los Angeles Rams will show up in the postseason. But, are teams like the Patriots, Saints, and Rams good wagers in the Super Bowl 53 Futures?

Before plopping down dollars on who you think will have the best odds to win Super Bowl LIII, consider the following factors.

Super Bowl LIII Betting Advice for the 2018 NFL Postseason

Top 5 Things To Consider Before Making Your Super Bowl Bet

  1. Think about fair odds
Fair odds are important. Right now, the Saints and Rams are the two favorites. New Orleans offers +280 odds. The Rams offer +320 odds. The Saints beat the Rams by 10 points this season. Does that mean the Saints are a good play at the odds? Probably not because right now the Rams own homefield advantage.

More importantly, the two favorites in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots offer +500 and +550 odds. The Saints or Rams must beat the AFC participant to win the Super Bowl. +500 and +550 most definitely is more attractive than +280 and +320.
  1. Consider team strategies
Consider the team strategy. Let’s go back to the Chiefs and Rams for this one. The Rams beat the Chiefs 54-51 in one of the highest-scoring games in NFL history. Both teams play ridiculously fast on offense. What happens if the Chiefs run into a team like the Ravens or Steelers during the playoffs? The Steelers now like to slow things down some and lean on a good defense while the Ravens have the best defense in the NFL.

What if the Rams run into the Saints or Cowboys in the playoffs? New Orleans defense has turned it, around which means they most likely won’t have to beat the Rams in a shootout like they did earlier in the season, while the Cowboys have the best defense in the NFC.
  1. Consider team quarterbacks
Tom Brady remains the greatest quarterback in NFL history. The Patriots will make the playoffs. The Saints Drew Brees won the Super Bowl in 2010 and owns, or is on the cusp of owning, virtually every passing record in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s Big Ben Roethlisberger has 2 Super Bowl rings.

But, the Rams’ Jared Goff, and the Chiefs Patrick Mahomes are young quarterbacks who have limited, if any in Mahomes’ case, playoff starting experience. Check out the winning quarterbacks in the past 4 Super Bowls:
  • 2018 – Eagles Nick Foles
  • 2017 – Patriots Tom Brady
  • 2016 – Broncos Peyton Manning
  • 2015 – Patriots Tom Brady
  • 2014 – Seahawks Russell Wilson
The Seahawks fielded one of the best defenses in Super Bowl history in 2014 while the Eagles had been the best team in the NFL during the regular season. If you wager on a team to win the Super Bowl with an inexperienced quarterback, there had better be something else about the team that makes you like them.
  1. Handicap coaches
Coaches are different. Sean Payton called an onside kick in the 2010 Super Bowl and the Saints went on to beat the Colts. Andy Reid, KC’s coach, almost never goes off script while nobody game plans as well as Bill Belichick. Handicap coaches before making a Super Bowl future bet.
  1. History means something
There’s a reason the Patriots always end up in the Super Bowl while Andy Reid coached teams haven’t yet won a Super Bowl. Keep history in mind before making your Super Bowl wagers.