Hitting prop wagers, even Super Bowl prop wagers, is one of the most difficult thing for players to do. It’s almost impossible in a lot of ways, which is why it’s important to understand prop betting.
Below, you can get an idea of the differences between actual football defenses and defensive prop wagers. Understanding the difference will lead to more successful Super Bowl LIII defense prop odds.
Super Bowl LIII Defense vs Defense Props
How do NFL defenses work?
Sounds silly, right? Everybody knows how NFL defenses work. The try to stop NFL offenses from moving the football to their goal line. Sounds simple enough. Almost too simple.
Stop the rush, get pressure, and force the quarterback into bad throws. In other words, NFL defenses main goal is to stop offenses from scoring, yes, but it’s also to push offenses into playing a type of style that benefits the defense.
How do defensive coordinators accomplish this? They set up defensive plays that allow for overall success by pushing offenses into calling plays that move in specific directions.
The Rams are a great example of doing this. Los Angeles uses Aaron Donald to push plays to either inside of Donald or towards Michael Brockers. Donald had 40 solo tackles. 20 of those solo tackles were quarterback sacks. That’s how good Aaron Donald is.
Ndamukong Suh plays NT. He helps push plays towards Brockers and Donald. The Rams will switch things up to counter what offenses do, but more often than not, they push plays to either side of Donald depending on the overall strategy.
What does this mean when it comes to Super Bowl defensive prop wagers?
Study defensive strategy, then make Super Bowl defensive prop wagers
The key to making successful NFL prop wagers is to understand what each team’s trying to accomplish on defense. Let’s take the Rams again.
MyBookie offers this defensive prop on Corey Littleton, the Rams’ inside linebacker:
Littleton had 90 solo tackles during the regular season. He had 11 tackles against New Orleans in the NFC Championship. He only had 5 tackles versus the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Playoffs.
How will the Rams play New England’s offense? Will they push plays towrads Littleton for 11 tackles like he had against the Saints? Or, will they keep him at home and play a defensive strategy like what they installed versus the Cowboys?
The answer’s obvious, right? The Patriots run their wide receivers across the middle just like the Saints do. Heck, the two teams are almost mirror images of each other on offense. So, Littleton’s likely to be the second man in the box against Julian Edelman the way he was versus Michael Thomas.
Littleton getting over 8 tackles looks like a great prop wager because the Rams won’t blitz Littleton that much, he’ll be in on rushing plays, and he should be the second man in the box to disrupt Julian Edelman.
Now, think of how we came to that conclusion and use the process on every Super Bowl LIII defensive prop wager you’re considering making.
2019 Super Bowl Week Expert Betting News
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