Top NFL Betting Picks to Win the NFC Championship in 2017

Posted by Peter Brennan on Wednesday,August 2, 2017 9:45, EDT in

With the NFC producing a different conference winner in each of the last three years and nine different winners in the last 11 years overall (81.8%), simple mathematics says there is a really high probability that the upcoming 2017 campaign will produce another different champion in the NFC Conference. While that’s bad news for the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons, it’s good news for every other NFC Conference Super Bowl hopeful and it could be for you too if you know which teams have the best opportunities to win the NFC Championship this coming season.

In an ongoing effort to help you maximize your chances for betting success this coming NFL campaign, I’m going to offer up a bit of expert betting analysis on three teams with the best NFL odds to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 52 in February of 2018. Let’s get started with my look at the favorite, my ‘smart’ pick and my top longshot selection to do just that!

Top NFL Betting Picks to Win the NFC Championship in 2017

The Favorite

Dallas Cowboys

NFC Championship Odds: +400

The Dallas Cowboys (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) are +400 ‘tri-favorites’ to win the NFC Conference in 2017 along with the Green Bay Packers (10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) and Seattle Seahawks, but I don’t think all three teams are created equal if you ask me.

As a matter of fact, while the ‘Boys are tied with two other NFC rivals as far as their odds to win the NFC this coming season, I actually believe they’ve got the worst chance of the three teams to actually pull it off.

First and foremost, Dallas has one of the most difficult schedules in the league in 2017, along with their fellow NFC East division rivals. Dallas has a quartet of tough games against their AFC West counterparts, not to mention difficult matchups against Arizona, Atlanta, Green Bay and Seattle.

In addition to that, I’m not real sure that they addressed their defensive needs well enough this offense after finishing 2016 ranked an uninspiring 26th against the pass (260.4 ypg), although they did finish fifth in points allowed (19.1 ppg).

The Boys parted ways with a whopping seven defensive contributors from last season’s team, including guys like Barry Church and Morris Claiborne among others and just didn’t make any significant free agent additions, although I do like the drafting of Michigan defensive end Taco Charlton.

While Dak Prescott proved to be a revelation at quarterback last season, Dallas needs to improve a passing attack that ranked an uninspiring 23rd (226.9 ypg) last season. In essence, the ‘Boys are favorites, but they’re going to have an uphill battle to climb in 2017.

DALLAS COWBOYS TEAM STATISTICS

  • Offensive total yards: 379.76
  • Average Score For: 26.59
  • Offensive rush yards: 149.06
  • Defensive total yards: 348.06
  • Offensive passing yards: 230.71
  • Defensive rush yards: 83.41
  • Average Score Against: 20.00
  • Defensive passing yards: 264.65

Biggest NFC Rivalry Games in the 2017 NFL Betting Calendar

The Smart Pick

Seattle Seahawks

NFC Championship Odds: +400

I know the Seahawks (10-5-1 SU,  8-8 ATS) had what could be considered, for them, a kind of ‘down’ season in winning ‘just’ 10 games last season, but I genuinely believe that Russell Wilson and company could get back to being the best team in the NFC Conference in 2017 for several reasons.

First and foremost, the Seahawks are still elite defensively, even if they’re not quite the ‘Legion of Boom’ they used to be a few years ago. Seattle finished the 2016 campaign ranked fifth in total defense, eighth against the pass, seventh against the run and a stellar third in points allowed (18.2 ppg). That kind of defense is what wins championship people, even though everyone loves high-scoring offenses in today’s times.

Speaking of offense however, and it’s true Seattle needs to improve after averaging a modest 22.1 points per game (18th) and ranking 25th overall in rushing (99.4 ypg) while looking nothing like the powerful ground game they used to overpower opponents with when former running back Marshawn Lynch was at his ‘Beast Mode’ best.

The good news is that Seattle added a clearly motivated and powerful running back in former Green Bay Packers star Eddie Lacy and will have a healthy Thomas Rawls in 2017 after expecting the former backup to pick up where Lynch left off last season. Seattle has a modest offseason and draft, but didn’t lose a bunch from their roster either. Right now, the Seahawks are the ‘smart’ pick for me to win the NFC in 2017.

SEATTLE SEAHWAKS TEAM STATISTICS

  • Offensive total yards: 356.17
  • Average Score For: 22.22
  • Offensive rush yards: 103.83
  • Defensive total yards: 320.00
  • Offensive passing yards: 252.33
  • Defensive rush yards: 90.83
  • Average Score Against: 18.56
  • Defensive passing yards: 229.17

Are the New York Giants a favorite to win the NFC Championship this season?

The Longshot

New York Giants

NFC Championship Odds: +1000

I have no idea why the Giants (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) are favored behind teams like Carolina and Arizona after going 11-5 last season, but I love the value the G-Men are offering as something of a +1000 longshot. For me, it all starts with a defense that ranked 10th overall. While their their 23rd-ranked pass defense could stand an upgrade, New York finished a fantastic fourth against the run and a stupendous second in points allowed (17.8 ppg).

Now, the Giants do need to improve an offense that ranked 25th overall, 17th in passing, a pitiful 29th in rushing and 26th in scoring (19.4 ppg), but they added veteran wide receiver Brandon Marshall and tight end Evan Engram which should help. Again, for me, defense still wins championships and if the G-Men play defense like they did last season, they could surprise in a big, big way.

NEW YORK GIANTS TEAM STATISTICS

  • Offensive total yards: 332.59
  • Average Score For: 19.00
  • Offensive rush yards: 87.18
  • Defensive total yards: 343.71
  • Offensive passing yards: 245.41
  • Defensive rush yards: 87.76
  • Average Score Against: 18.94
  • Defensive passing yards: 255.94

Latest 2017 NFC Championship Odds

  • Arizona Cardinals: +800
  • Atlanta Falcons: +580
  • Carolina Panthers: +900
  • Chicago Bears: +4000
  • Detroit Lions: +2000
  • Green Bay Packers: +400
  • LA Rams: +4000
  • Minnesota Vikings: +1000
  • New Orleans Saints: +1600
  • Philadelpahia Eagles: +1600
  • San Francisco 49ers: +5500
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +1600
  • Washington Redskins: +2000