Top Three Mistakes Made When Betting On The 2017 Super Bowl
Posted by Eric Williams on Thursday,January 26, 2017 12:15, EDT in
If you’re gearing up for the quickly approaching Super Bowl 51 showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots and you’re looking to formulate your betting plan on the big game, then you need to know that there are some timeless mistakes that you definitely want to void at all costs.
Thanks to the expert betting analysis that you’re about to get, you’re going to find out all about avoiding the top three mistakes that NFL betting odds enthusiasts make when betting on the Super Bowl. Let’s get started.
Top Three Mistakes Made When Betting On The 2017 Super Bowl
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
When: Sunday, February 5 at 6:30 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Spread: New England -3
Moneyline: Atlanta +140 at New England -160 / Game Total: 58
No. 3 Mistake
Polar-Opposite Props Bets
When it comes to Super Bowl props betting, you need to make sure your props picks are all leaning toward the same outcomes that you’re expecting. For example, if you like the Over and you’re expecting Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to burn the Patriots’ defense for over 300 passing yards, then you probably don’t want to go making props wagers for running backs Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman to top their respective rushing total props odds.
Maybe you believe the Patriots’ underrated defense will put the clamps on Ryan and company and you think the Under will play out. Then you’re surely not going to go making wagers on Ryan or superstar wide receiver Julio Jones to top their personal passing and receiving yards props odds. The bottom line is that you need to make sure your props bets aren’t polar-opposite picks that contradict one another.
Mistake No. 2 Halftime Bets/Chasing Lines
I know tons of football bettors that ‘chase’ lines or go all in on halftime betting opportunities – generally after losing some cash in the first half. Bettors will often start making ‘hopeful’ wagers that don’t offer as much value as they should – or worse, start making wagers that go against the very thought process they may have formed prior to the Super Bowl.
Case in point…let’s say you played the Over 50 total points or Over 22 first half points and the score is 13-3 at the half. Many bettors will then throw money on the Under or second half Under in the hopes of getting back some of the earnings they lost in the first half. Making a slew of thoughtless halftime bets and chasing lines is a definite no-no that all Super Bowl bettors need to avoid.
Mistake No. 1 – Betting Too Early or Too Late
The No. 1 mistake that many Super Bowl betting enthusiasts make is wagering on the Super Bowl either too early or too late. For instance, let’s say you plan on betting on the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl 51. Well, after opening as a favorite between 2.5 and 4 points, the Patriots are now solid 3-point favorites to beat Atlanta.
Now, if you plan on backing Tom Brady and the Patriots, then you likely want to get New England Patriots early as the odds for the Patriots almost assuredly won’t go any lower than the three points it currently sits at, barring an injury to a key starter that is.
Conversely, if you want to bet on Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Falcons to pull off the Super Bowl 51 upset, then you may want to wait a little bit longer to see if you can get another half-point or even a full point. If you already bet on the Falcons as a 2.5-point or 3-point underdog, then you could be losing the value that you’d have gained by waiting a bit longer.
As is the case almost every season, the Super Bowl betting line generally shows some form of movement and it has already done so with the Pats, so expect the line to move again, even if slightly, before Super Bowl 51 takes place. 97 percent of all Super Bowls bets don’t come in until about two days before the big game, so don’t rush your wager, but don’t wait too long either – it could also cost you valuable points.
