Fe, Fi, Fo, Fum…I smell some Week 2 upsets, now here they come! Three favored teams look like they’re going to be on the wrong end of upset outcomes in their respective Week 2 matchups.
If you’re looking for some value-packed pairings that have a great chance of paying huge dividends, then let’s get started.
A Closer Look At The Top NFL Upset Picks For Week 2
Tampa Bay at Arizona -6.5
When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, September 18, 2016
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Analysis: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and more importantly, second-year signal-caller Jameis Winston looked mostly fantastic in upsetting Atlanta 31-24 in their Week 1 NFC South divisional showdown as a 2.5-point road underdog no less. The Arizona Cardinals looked nothing like the Super Bowl title contender they were supposed to be in their humbling 23-21 Week 1 loss to the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots.
Now, I’m expecting the Bucs and Winston to make another statement by easily covering the spread against Arizona. I know Tampa Bay has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, but Arizona has also gone 1-4 ATS in its last five games. For me, the growth of Winston is clearly evident while Arizona and veteran signal-caller Carson Palmer consistently underachieve, generally at the worst time possible. The Cardinals may be playing at home, but I smell an upset looming for the blossoming Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
My Pick: Tampa Bay 31 Arizona 28
Indianapolis at Denver -6
When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, September 18, 2016
Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver, Colorado
Analysis: The Denver Broncos put the clamps on Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers (again) in Week 1 to get the narrow 21-20 SU win and ATS cover as a 3-point home dog. Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts played fantastic football on offense by scoring an impressive 35 points in Week 1. Unfortunately, the Colts didn’t play much defense and ended up on the wrong end of a heartbreaking 39-35 loss against Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions while failing to cover the spread as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The Colts have won two straight and three of four over the Broncos since Andrew Luck became the starting quarterback in Indianapolis and I believe they’re going to get another upset win as Luck makes all the plays that Cam Newton failed to. Indianapolis may be 2-4 ATS in its last six games while Denver has won five straight at home, but odds and trends be damned – Andrew Luck has Denver’s number!
My Pick: Indianapolis 27 Denver 21
Miami +6.5 at New England
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 18, 2016
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Analysis: I know the New England Patriots looked really solid in their hard-fought 23-21 Week 1 win over Arizona as a 9.5-point road dog without Tom Brady under center, but the Miami Dolphins may have looked even better despite losing to Seattle 12-10 as a 10.5-point road underdog. While the Patriots have owned the AFC East and are perennial playoff participants to Miami’s often underachieving ways, the Dolphins have more than held their own against New England recently.
Miami has won three of the last five meetings against New England and just looked like a different team under new head coach Adam Gase than they ever were under previous head coach Joe Philbin. I loved the effort of Ndamukong Suh and the rest of Miami’s front seven and I believe they’re going to get after Jimmy Garoppolo while forcing him into at least one costly turnover.
While Miami is just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games and New England has gone 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games at home, I’m going to urge you to back the Dolphins for the huge upset!
My Pick: Miami 24 New England 21