If you’ve already begun betting on Super Bowl LIV or you’re planning on doing just that over the course of the next, nearly two weeks prior to the February 2nd kickoff down in Miami, then you need to know just which stats and ATS trends you should study before this year’s annual big dance. Thanks to the expert NFL betting insight that you’re about to get, you’re going to have a great chance to increase your Super Bowl LIV betting haul! Now, let’s get down to business.
Trends & Stats To Study Before Betting On Super Bowl LIV
Super Bowl Betting History
The first thing you need to know about betting on the Super Bowl is that the point-spread rarely comes into play believe it or not. Only six times in Super Bowl history has the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the chalk. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976. In the 2014-15 Super Bowl between Seattle and New England, the closing line was a pick ’em, which was the first time in Super Bowl history.
Favorites have gone a dominant 35-17 straight up (SU) and a solid, 28-20-2 against the spread (ATS) in the Super Bowl. The largest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.
Look at the SU Road Success
The Super Bowl is basically a road game unless one of the teams playing in it has the luck of the annual big dance being held in their hometown stadiums. With that said, looking at each team’s road success is one of the most vital things you should do before betting on the Super Bowl. Both, Kansas City and San Francisco both won seven of their eight road dates this season, so really, no team has a clear-cut advantage here.
Road ATS Stats
The Niners and Chiefs both went 6-2 ATS in their eight regular season road games this season. Ironically, bot teams also come into Super Bowl 54 riding identical three-game ATS winning streaks, so again, this one is a literal tie.
Postseason Quarterback Play
Last, but not least, the playoffs are a completely different beast than the regular season and I believe quarterback play in the postseason is a key area that NFL bettors need to look at. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 in four career playoff games with his only loss being a heartbreaking 37-31 loss against new England at home in last season’s AFC Championship game. Mahomes has completed 62.7 percent of his passes in the postseason while passing for 1,188 yards with a stellar 11 TD passes and no interceptions.
San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo got credit for appearing in one playoff game with New England in 2014, but really, the Niners’ franchise signal-caller made his playoff debut this postseason. Jimmy G has led Frisco to a pair of wins, but he’s been mediocre at best in throwing one TD pass and one interceptions despite completing a solid 63.0percent of his passes for just 208 yards. If Super Bowl 5 comes down to quarterback performance, this one isn’t even close. Patrick Mahomes is by far, the better quarterback in Super Bowl LIV!