There’s been some significant movement in NFL Week 1 lines since the first numbers appeared in April, but let’s not put too much weight into these adjustments. It’s not huge infusions of money from influential bettors that have caused the point spreads and totals to shift.
Because most shops set their limits around $2,000 at the most, the big groups aren’t driving these shifts. Even so, they’re worth discussing and considering as you put together your strategy for the coming NFL betting season.
Here are some thoughts on some of the more significant line moves that have influenced Week 1 games.
The Patriots shifted from 6-point favorites vs. the Steelers to -3, not because of betting action but because of the pending Tom Brady suspension.
The Steelers are the value play right now, because it seems like the Brady suspension should be worth more like 7 points than 3. Having Brady out of action should cost the Patriots more than just a field goal.
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) July 7, 2015
Green Bay has shifted from a four-point favorite to -5.5 against Chicago.
With John Fox coming in, Bears fans should be optimistic about the future. However, the big talk is about how this Green Bay offense could be among the best in league history, because all the starters are back from a record-setting season.
The Jets climbed from -1 to -3 hosting the Browns.
As we’ve said many times before, the Jets will have an outstanding secondary – possibly the best in the entire National Football League. The Browns will be rolling out new quarterback Josh McCown.
However, the Jets have a brand new head coach, and he used to be a defensive coordinator, which could mean that he’ll be more conservative.
While the total of 41 for this game is the lowest on the Week 1 board, think about going under anyway.
The Saints have moved from -2.5 to -3 against the Arizona Cardinals.
Drew Brees is more likely to be motivated than many people think, and that 9-1 Cardinals start still seems fishy.
Cincinnati slid from a -3 to a -3.5 against the Oakland Raiders.
>The Raiders have a lot of talent, and they finally have a solid coach in Jack Del Rio. Think about taking overs with the Raiders, and they will come out and surprise the Bengals with their toughness and passion. Think about taking the Raiders in this game.
The 49ers have dropped from -3.5 to -2.5 against Minnesota.
The 49ers have a ton of questions, starting with a head coach who’s never even been a coordinator and continuing to the quarterback position, as no one knows how Colin Kaepernick will come out.
NFL Week 1 lines
Thursday, September 10
Steelers at Patriots
Current line and total: Patriots -3, 49
Opening line and total: -6, 53
Sunday, September 13
Packers at Bears
Current line and total: Packers -5.5, 50.5
Opening line and total: -4, 50
Lions at Chargers
Current line and total: Chargers -2.5, 46
Opening line and total: -2, 46.5
Titans at Bucs
Current line and total: Bucs -3 (-120), 42
Opening line and total: -3, 42.5
Bengals at Raiders
Current line and total -3.5, 44.5
Opening line and total: -3, 44.5
Ravens at Broncos
Current line and total: -4, 52.5
Opening line and total: -4, 53
Giants at Cowboys
Current line and total: -5.5, 50
Opening line and total: -5.5, 50
Chiefs at Texans
Current line and total: Texans -1.5, 42
Opening line and total: -1.5, 43
Browns at Jets
Current line and total: Jets -3 (even), 41
Opening line and total: -1, 41
Colts at Bills
Current line and total: Colts -2.5, 47
Opening line and total: -3 (even), 48
Dolphins at Redskins
Current line and total: Dolphins -2.5, 44.5
Opening line and total: -2.5, 44.5
Panthers at Jaguars
Current line and total: Panthers -4, 42.5
Opening line and total -4, 43.5
Seahawks at Rams
Current line and total: Seahawks -3.5, 43
Opening line and total: -3.5, 44
Saints at Cardinals
Current line and total: -3 (even), 47
Opening line and total: -2.5, 48
Monday, September 14
Eagles at Falcons
Current line and total: -1, 53.5
Opening line and total: -1.5, 53.5
Vikings at 49ers
Current line and total: -2.5 (-120), 41
Opening line and total: -3.5, 42