Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs will look to extend their winning ways against Cam Newton and the desperate Carolina Panthers while Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers look to get back on track when they hit the road to face Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. Last but not least, Dak Prescott and the red-hot Dallas Cowboys will look to keep their winning streak alive when they visit Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, let’s find out where the value lies in my top three NFL picks against the spread for Week 10.
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
When: Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium
TV: CBS
NFL Odds: Carolina Panthers -3
Over/Under: 44
Analysis: Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) have won four straight games including their 19-14 Week 9 win over Jacksonville. Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers (3-5 SU, 2-5- 1 ATS) have won two straight and enter this matchup coming off a narrow 13-10 win over the lowly Rams last weekend.
While Carolina is playing at home and enters this Week 10 inter-conference clash with a sizable amount of desperation, it is Kansas City that is the right pick to get the ATS cover – by beating the Panthers outright. The Panthers look nothing like the team that went 15-1 last season and represented the NFC in Super Bowl 50. Conversely, Kansas City has made a habit out of winning games they’re supposed to.
One Focus. One Goal. #KeepPounding
| https://t.co/7CZN2xaq8y pic.twitter.com/NbCGORioC3
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 12, 2016
The Chiefs have the better defense in this contest and should be able to force Newton into at least one costly turnover while getting their usual steady performance out of Alex Smith. Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games while Carolina has gone 1-4- 1 ATS and 2-4 SU in their last six games. More importantly, Carolina just can’t find any consistency while Kansas City is the definition of consistency. The Chiefs get the outright win to cover the spread.
NFL Pick: Kansas City +3 Points
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
When: Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Nissan Stadium
NFL Odds: Tennessee Titans +2.5
Over/Under: 49.5
TV: FOX
Odds: Green Bay -3
Analysis: Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (4-4 SU, 3-4- 1 ATS) are completely desperate which is why I believe they’re the easy pick to beat Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) on Sunday despite the fact that the Titans are clearly improving.
Tennessee was on the wrong end of a 43-35 loss against San Diego last weekend while Green Bay suffered their own crushing loss by falling to Indianapolis 31-26. The Packers have the slight statistical edge in scoring and points allowed defensively and will almost assuredly come out with a great effort after Rodgers ripped his teammates for their lackluster effort last weekend.
Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road while Tennessee has gone 3-13- 1 ATS in its last 17 games and 1-7- 1 ATS in its last nine home games. Sheer desperation will drive the Packers to the outright win and accompanying ATS cover as a modest 2.5-point favorite.
Pick: Green Bay -2.5 Points
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers
When: Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 4:25 PM ET
Where: Heinz Field
TV: FOX
NFL Odds: Pittsburgh -2.5
Over/Under: 50
Analysis: The Dallas Cowboys (7-1 SU, 7-0- 1 ATS) are on a red-hot roll, having won seven straight games coming into this contest including their convincing 35-10 smackdown of Cleveland last weekend. The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) have lost three straight and didn’t look good at all in their humbling 21-14 loss against division rival Baltimore last weekend.
For me, the Dallas Cowboys are the pick to get the road upset against a Steelers team that has been wildly inconsistent all season long. The Cowboys average 4.8 points per game more than the Steelers while simultaneously limiting the opposition to almost four fewer points per game defensively.
More importantly, Dallas has a well-balanced offense and a rookie quarterback that limits his mistakes a lot better than most veterans. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t looked anything like a future Hall of Famer and the Steelers are clearly lacking their usual mojo. Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five games and 4-1 ATS in their last four road games while Pittsburgh has gone 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The ‘Boys get the road win and ATS cover.
Pick: Dallas +2.5 Points
