2016 UEFA Champions League Final Odds Analysis

Posted by Joe Solari on May 24, 2016 in

The UEFA Champions League Semi-finals featured a lot of drama in the soccer betting odds, and were far from pretty by most standards of fluid football, but none of that matters much now, as Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are deservedly in the Final. Below is a brief analysis of the 2016 UEFA Champions League Final Odds and what you can expect to take place on the D-day this Saturday.

A Closer Look at the 2016 UEFA Champions League Final Odds Analysis

When: Saturday, May 28, 2:45 p.m. ET
Where: San Siro, Milan, Italy
TV: SkySports/ BT Sport Europe
Soccer Lines: Real to win +225, Atletico to win +138, Draw +220

Handicapping Winner in Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid UCL Final

With four wins and two draws in their last six domestic encounters (La Liga and Copa Del Rey), Atletico Madrid look to have the better momentum coming into this fixture. In addition, Atleti have faced tougher adversity than Real en route the finals, overcoming big giants in Barcelona and Bayern Munich to earn their chance at a first UEFA Champions League trophy. Even so, Real Madrid own a better overall record of W102, D48 and L50 in their all-time 200 domestic meetings against Atleti. Moreover, Real are undefeated in their all-time six meetings against Atleti in Europe (W4, D2), including the 4-1 extra-time win over Atletico in the 2013/14 UEFA Champions League Final.

Verdict: If you are looking for a risky but worthy bet, Atleti is the way to go. If you are, however, looking for a safe bet, then Real is obviously the best option. My Pick: Real Madrid (+225).

Handicapping Goals in Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid UCL Final

This game is likely to be a closely fought encounter with goals coming at a premium, as has been the case in most fixtures between these two teams. In the two meetings between Atletico and Real this season, we had a 0-0 draw in October and a 1-0 win by Atletico in February, underlining just how cagey the meetings between these two teams usually are. Also, Real Madrid’s goalkeeper Keylor Navas has kept a clean sheet in all but one his Champions League games this season (the two goals allowed at Wolfsburg) and his domestic form has equally been solid, so Atleti’s opportunistic offense won’t be having it easy here. Meanwhile, Real Madrid will also have its work cut out for them against Atletico’s defense that ranks best in Europe this year in terms of goals allowed in all competitions. Still, both teams are talented enough to get on the scoresheet and the intensity of the game is likely to lead to lead to at least two goals.

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Verdict: Be on the lookout for both teams to score and bet on OVER 1.5 goals as the best goal pick in terms of total goals in the game. As far as goal scorers are concerned, Bale and Cristiano should be your top picks for Real Madrid, with Griezman and Torres being your top Atletico Madrid picks.