Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid 2018 UCL Odds Semifinal Second Leg

Posted by Jordan Walters on Tuesday,May 1, 2018 8:58, EDT in

Spanish powerhouse Real Madrid can punch its ticket to another Champions League final on Tuesday simply by drawing against the top club in Germany, Bayern Munich. Real Madrid leads in aggregate 2-1 after the first leg and is a +117 favorite in the UCL odds to win this match. Bayern is +201 with a draw at +295 and the total 3.5 goals.

Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid 2018 UCL Odds Semifinal Second Leg

When: Tuesday, 2:45 PM ET
Where: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream: Fox Sports 1
Radio: None
Opening UCL Odds: Real Madrid +117, Bayern +201, draw +295 (3.5)

Why Bet on Bayern Munich’s UCL Odds?

Bayern enter the match on the back of a confident 4-1 league victory over Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga.

Bayern suffered an early blow in the 2-1 home first leg loss to Real Madrid when Arjen Robben was forced off injured after only eight minutes, Thiago Alcantara coming on in his place. They now must score at least twice at the Bernabeu on Tuesday to stand a chance of reaching the final for the first time since 2012-13.

While it appears a daunting prospect against the back-to-back European champions, Madrid did lose 3-1 at home to Juventus in the last round and also trailed Bayern 2-1 after 90 minutes in last season’s quarterfinals. Zinedine Zidane’s side ultimately prevailed on aggregate on both occasions, but Jupp Heynckes has seen enough to know an upset is possible.

“Real Madrid showed in [the Juve] game they’re vulnerable even at home. They’re not invincible in spite of appearances,” he told reporters

Only twice in UEFA Champions League history have a team overhauled a first-leg home defeat to win the tie, and Bayern have painful memories of the more recent case having been beaten by FC Internazionale Milano in the 2010/11 round of 16 (1-0 away, 2-3 home). That followed AFC Ajax’s comeback against Panathinaikos FC in the 1995/96 semi-finals (0-1 h, 3-0 a).

“I’ll be trying to rectify mistakes,” Heynckes added, “We’ll try to attack. That’s the Bayern DNA: we always want to score. We need to be more efficient than we were in the first leg and we need to take our chances like they did. Madrid know it’s the game of the year and that they need to put on a great performance. Little details will be fundamental. For 93 minutes, the players need to be very switched on.”

Who Won’t Play in the Second Leg?

Despite Real Madrid’s injury issues, it’s a lot worse for Bayern Munich. Robben has been ruled out, and Kingsley Coman, Manuel Neuer, and Arturo Vidal are both going to miss the semifinal with long term injuries.

Bayern have lost their last three semi-finals, having won the previous four. Bayern’s record in two-legged ties against Spanish sides is W10 L10; they beat Sevilla FC in this season’s quarterfinals (2-1 away, 0-0 home). Overall Bayern’s away record against Spanish clubs is W7 D5 L15. The win at Sevilla ended a run of five successive losses in Spain.

Bayern have lost five home first legs in UEFA competition and won two of those ties on aggregate, their most recent such victory coming against FC Lokomotiv Moskva in the 1995/96 UEFA Cup first round (0-1 h, 5-0 a). All three aggregate defeats came when the first match finished 2-1 to the visitors, however; against Norwich City in the 1993/94 UEFA Cup second round (1-1 a), FK Crvena zvezda in the 1990/91 European Champion Clubs’ Cup semi-finals (2-2 a) and against Madrid last season

Why Bet on Real Madrid’s UCL Odds?

Is Real Madrid a safe bet vs. Bayern Munich?

For the second time in 12 months, Real Madrid welcome Bayern München for a second leg defending a 2-1 advantage earned in Germany.

In the first leg last week, Real Madrid won by that score in Munich. Madrid, who are looking to become the first team to lift the European Cup in three successive seasons since Bayern won between 1974-76, trailed to a Joshua Kimmich goal before Marcelo and Marco Asensio hit back. Asensio, a substitute, scored the winner in the 57th minute.  Cristiano Ronaldo thought he had scored a fine third on the half volley in the 71st minute, but the goal was correctly chalked off after he brought the ball down with his arm.

Madrid warmed up for this match with a 2-1 win over Leganes on the weekend in La Liga. Madrid took an early lead when Gareth Bale scored with acrobatic effort that creeped over line, after Karim Benzema’s shot was saved. The lead was doubled through Borja Mayoral, who knocked in with one of his first touches. Real rested several key players ahead of this match.

Madrid have won their last six matches against Bayern, scoring 15 goals and conceding five. Ronaldo failed to score in the first leg but still has seven goals in his last four appearances against Bayern – and nine in seven matches overall.

How Well Has Real Madrid Done in this Tournament?

The 12-time European champions became the first team to win 150 UEFA Champions League matches with their first-leg victory. This match is their 250th in the UEFA Champions League, group stage to final; they are also the first club to reach that landmark. Madrid’s home record against Bundesliga clubs is W25 D5 L3. That 2015 defeat by Schalke was Madrid’s sole reverse in their last 17 home games against German teams (W13 D3). Ronaldo hit another hat-trick against VfL Wolfsburg, for a 3-0 win in the 2015/16 quarter-final which overturned a 2-0 first-leg deficit.

Isco will miss this match after failing to recover from a sprained shoulder in time. The Spain midfielder suffered the injury during the first leg of the semi-final on German soil, leading to him being substituted at the halfway stage of his side’s 2-1 win. Despite training with the squad on Monday, Isco’s name does not feature in Zinedine Zidane’s squad for the return fixture at the Santiago Bernabeu. However, Nacho Fernandez – who has missed the past month of action due a thigh problem – is included.

Isco becomes the second high profile player to be ruled out of the second leg, after right back Dani Carvajal was sidelined with injury in Munich. In their absence, Zidane is expected to start Lucas Vasquez at right back and Asensio in midfield, but a formation change might be required to accommodate them.

Expert Champions League Betting Prediction

Real Madrid is going to play conservative here so I like the under 3.5 goals. Look for a 1-1 draw.