Rafael Nadal searches for his fourth US Open and first since 2017 when he takes on up and coming superstar Daniil Medvedev on Sunday, August 8. Medvedev heads into the U.S. Open on a serious streak. Can Nadal break that streak and take down one of the best young tennis players on the planet? Check out US Open betting odds, a preview, and a free pick for Nadal-Medvedev!
2019 US Open Men’s Tennis Finals Odds, Medvedev vs Nadal Betting Preview and Prediction
- When: Sunday, September 8 at 4:00pm ET
- Where: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, NY
- Surface: Hard
- TV: ESPN /ESPN2 / ESPN+
- Live Stream: ESPN+
- Betting Odds: Rafael Nadal -625 / Daniil Medvedev +361
Why Daniil Medvedev is a good bet +361
Novak Djokovic entered the U.S. Open as the favorite. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer were the second and third choices. Daniil Medvedev was a solid +1200 fourth choice to win the U.S. Open.
He’s proven the oddsmakers correct. Medvedev entered the final major of the year having upset Novak Djokovic in the semifinals at the Western & Southern Open. Daniil beat David Goffin for the title. He had a hot hand entering the tournament and although he’s struggled in spots, he’s gotten past every one of his opponents. He faces Nadal after an excellent 7-6 (7-5), 6-4, 6-3 win over Grigor Dimitrov. Medvedev appears to be getting stronger. That gives him a shot to upset Rafa on September 8.
Form Last 6
- W – vs. Grigor Dimitrov
- W – vs. (23) Stanislas Wawrinka
- W – vs. Dominik Koepfer
- W – vs. Feliciano Lopez
- W – vs. Hugo Dellien
- W – vs. Prajnesh Gunneswaran
Why Rafael Nadal is a good bet -625
Nadal is the last of the Big 3 standing. He entered the tournament as the second choice behind Novak Djokovic. Rafa made a statement early on, dominating Jon Millman 6-3, 6-2, 6-2. After advancing past Thanasi Kokkinakis via a walkover, Nadal beat Hyeon Chung 6-3, 6-4, 6-2.
He lost is only set of the U.S. Open in Round 4 versus Marin Cilic. Cilic took the second set 6-3. Save for that loss, Nadal has been perfect. He easily wore down Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals. Although offering low odds, Rafael Nadal appears set to take yet another major championship on Sunday.
Form Last 6
- W – vs. (24) Matteo Berrettini
- W – vs. (20) Diego Shwartzman
- W – vs. (22) Marin Cilic
- W – vs. Hyeon Chung
- W – vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
- W – vs. John Millman
US Open Men’s Tennis Finals Betting Trends for Medvedev vs Nadal
- Rafael Nadal is 6-0 SU in his last 6 matches
- Rafael Nadal has won 7 sets in a row
- Rafael Nadal is 13-1 SU in his last 14 sets played
- Daniil Medvedev is 8-1 SU in his last 9 sets played
- Daniil Medvedev is 6-0 SU in his last 6 matches
- Daniil Medvedev is 5-0 SU in his last 5 sets played
2019 US Open Men’s Tennis Finals Betting Analysis:
Medvedev and Nadal are both playing exceptionally well. The last time the two faced off, though, Nadal dominated. That was at the Rogers Cup Finals in Montreal, Canada back in early to mid-August.
Rafa beat Daniil 6-3, 6-0. Medvedev, by his own admission, admits that he was more immature back then. Although that might be the case, Nadal has a true physical advantage over Medvedev in this.
While Daniil Medvedev has played a total of 27 sets during the U.S. Open, Rafa has only played 17 total sets. The physical advantage has nothing to do with height, weight, or speed. It has everything to do with the fact that Daniil, even though he’s a decade younger, has had to play 10 more grueling sets. He, like Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals, will run out of gas against the great Rafael Nadal.
If Daniil battled a worse tennis player on Sunday, he’d still have trouble getting through the final match. Unfortunately for him, he battles one of the greats. Rafael Nadal will beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets and win the 2019 U.S. Open Men’s Tennis Tournament.
U.S. Open Men’s Tennis Finals Pick: Rafael Nadal