The MMA world was hoping that one-time women’s pound-for-pound champion Ronda Rousey was going to make her return to the Octagon on Saturday for the first time since a shocking loss to Holly Holm last November in Australia. However, Rousey’s still not physically or mentally ready and might not fight at all in 2016. So instead the top women’s bout at the star-studded UFC 200 card in Las Vegas on Saturday night features new women’s bantamweight champions Miesha Tate making her first title defense against Amanda Nunes. Tate is -255 on Mybookie.ag betting lines with Nunes at +205 and the over/under at just 1.5 rounds, with the over a -235 favorite.
Taking a Look at the UFC 200 Odds & Preview on Tate vs. Nunes
Tate (18-5) won the title in an upset submission win against Holm at UFC 196. Holm was winning the fight until the fifth round, when Tate took her back and secured a rear-naked choke with 90 seconds remaining. It was Holm’s first defense of her belt since defeating Rousey at UFC 193. In Round 5, Tate gambled and ducked under a straight right from Holm and took her back with two minutes remaining. From that position, Tate managed to once again sink in a rear naked choke and this time, Holm couldn’t escape. She refused to tap out and was briefly unconscious as the referee called the fight.
“She got a lot of heart … she gave me everything she had,” Tate said to UFC president Dana White after being named the victor. “We had a great gameplan, I knew I had to be patient … and find the perfect moment.”
In her second UFC title shot Tate seemed headed to losing a decision to Holm, appearing beat in three of the first four rounds because of the striking and kicking prowess that won Holm the Rousey bout. Holm wanted an immediate rematch but the UFC opted to go in another direction. Tate, meanwhile, can crow all she wants about beating Holm, but she was dominated in two losses to Rousey.
Nunes (12-4), on a three-fight winning streak, is 5-1 overall in the UFC with four finishes. She fought on that Rousey-Holm card and beat Valentina Shevchenko by unanimous decision, 29-28, 29-27, 29-27. Nunes was in some trouble in the third, absorbing a knee to the head and some punishment on the ground. Her only loss came to former title challenger Cat Zingano in September 2014. That bout against Zingano was one she was winning until the second round. The book on Nunes, 28, is that she’s a strong starter, but fades after the first few minutes.
This week, Tate didn’t sound too concerned with her opponent: “She’s never faced anyone like me. I also think her mentality, her mental, that’s a big weakness, honestly. … I think she thinks she likes to get it, but I don’t think she does. I think she likes to be delivering. And if she’s winning, it’s great. But when she’s not, when she’s put in that spot of adversity, she tends to break.”
Tate says she is laser-focused on Nunes, however, because she so badly wants another shot at Rousey, even though it may not happen until early 2017. Most likely, a Holm-Tate rematch would first be in the cards.
Expert Betting Prediction
I doubt this lasts more than one round so go under that total on betting lines. Tate wins.