UFC 202 Diaz vs McGregor 2 Expert Betting Pick

Posted by Joe Solari on Friday,August 19, 2016 9:25, EST in

The profanity-laced trash talks are coming in thick and fast, tempers are flaring all over the place, and the anticipation is building up to an all-time high as MMA betting fans gear up for the biggest fight of the year, the rematch between Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz at UFC 202. Dubbed Diaz vs. McGregor 2, the highly-awaited UFC Welterweight showdown is set to take place at the MGM Grand this coming weekend. So, without making the fight appear grandiose than it already really is, let’s jump into the MMA lines and see if we can catch some sweet UFC picks for this heaven-sent hellraiser of a face-off.

Here’s a Look at the UFC 202 Diaz vs McGregor 2 Expert Betting Pick

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Saturday, August 20, 10 p.m. ET/ 7 p.m. PT
TV: FOX Sports 1 / BT
Live Stream: UFC.com
Betting Lines: Diaz (+108), McGregor (-128)

Why Diaz Will Win?

When these two fighters fought at UFC 196 in March, Diaz cleverly strung out the contest by absorbing McGregor’s punches before eventually getting the rear naked choke to record a submission win, a victory that ended McGregor’s undefeated streak in the UFC. As was clearly showcased in his fight versus McGregor (and typical of nearly all his career fights), Diaz is a master grappler with great wrestling abilities and solid punch-and- box skills. Essentially, that’s the reason 12 of Diaz’s 20 victories– translating to 60%– have come via submission.

More than that, Diaz boasts of great experience in the UFC—with this fight being his 22nd in the UFC, against McGregor’s Ninth—and his ability to go the distance in fights is easily unparalleled by McGregor, who is used to short fights. In fact, it is because of this endurance that he was able to beat the Irishman in UFC 196. Even more notably, Diaz is bigger than McGregor, precisely three inches taller with a two-inch reach advantage over The Notorious; something could very easily trouble McGregor who has mostly been going against smaller opponents.

Why McGregor Will Win?

If there’s ever a fight McGregor would never like to lose, it is this one, considering he requested for it as a means of proving that he was actually better than he showed us in UFC 196. And to his credit, McGregor did put on a good show, especially in the first round and the opening half of the second, where he relentlessly came at Diaz with his power-punching skills and battered the American real good in the face. Unfortunately for him, he got tired as the fight went on and Diaz took advantage of that. To have a chance at avenging that loss, McGregor will need be calculative enough with his strikes in case the fight goes the distance into the late rounds.

Obviously, being a knockout artist—as is confirmed by the fact that 17 of the 19 victories by McGregor have come via knockouts—could help him score a TKO or KO over Diaz. But rather than just use his solid boxing skills that can be a hit or miss against the smart Diaz, Mystic Mac should balance it with leg kicks and power wrestling, as this is probably the only way he may get to outsmart the American by catching him off-guard. This should be particularly encouraged by the fact that has a two-inch advantage in the leg reach over Diaz.

My Expert MMA Predictions and Picks

After winning as a massive underdog against McGregor barely five months ago, Diaz has every right to be taken very seriously against McGregor in this match. Of course, McGregor’s intense training over the past five months and his superior KO skills make him a dangerous opponent. But this is a case of McGregor literally trying to punch above his weight against the bigger and very experienced Diaz, a guy with incredible cardio and great grappling skills to go along with solid ability to box. With that, I will have to go with Diaz getting the win over McGregor, most likely by the end of the third round, via submission.

My Pick: Diaz