UFC 207 Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey Betting Prediction

Posted by Michael Hunt on Friday,December 30, 2016 8:10, EDT in

The UFC usually stages its biggest cards on Saturday nights, just like they do in boxing. But this Saturday night is New Year’s Eve and also the night of the College Football Playoff second semifinal between Ohio State and Clemson. So smartly, the UFC is staging its 207 card from Las Vegas on Friday night and it’s the biggest bout in women’s MMA history as it marks the return to the Octagon of arguably the most popular MMA fighter on the planet, male or female, in American Ronda Rousey. She is the -150 favorite on MyBookie MMA odds against current bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes, who is +130. The over/under rounds total is just 1.5. The main event should start somewhere around 11:30 p.m. ET and will be shown on pay-per- view.

UFC 207 Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey Betting Prediction

There are no female divisions in the UFC right now most likely without Rousey, who has become one of the biggest female athletic stars in the United States not just because of how dominating she had been in the Octagon but also her personality and looks. There’s a reason that Rousey also appears in movies.

Friday could well be her last fight as more movies are likely in Rousey’s future. And she admitted thoughts of suicide when she lost her title to then-unknown Holly Holm last November in Australia in the biggest upset in MMA history. Rousey was completely battered in the fight. She clearly wasn’t ready to fight a female boxer like Holm was. The first female to ever sign with the UFC, Rousey had recorded six consecutive title defenses, five of which ended in the first round, prior to the loss.

Rousey (12-1) has been out of the media limelight ahead of this fight but has posted some pictures on Instagram and she looks totally ripped compared to when she fought Holm. Then again, in combat sports, unlike in Hollywood, fights aren’t always won by the athlete with the most shredded physique (Fedor Emelianenko is an example of that).

“The Lioness” Nunes (13-4) has been a mainstay in the bantamweight division since 2011, fighting in Strikeforce and Invicta Fighting Championships before making her UFC debut in 2013. Nunes won the title by submitting Miesha Tate in the first round at UFC 200 in July. The Brazilian was dominant on her feet with a flawless display of boxing. She bloodied Tate’s face with stiff jabs and overhand rights before taking her to the ground and securing a rear-naked choke.

Nunes is on a four-fight winning streak and has 12 career finishes in 13 wins. A win over Rousey will put her in the “Fighter of the Year” discussion. It should be noted that Rousey also beat Tate twice earlier in her career.

At 28, Nunes is one year younger than Rousey and she’s an inch taller at 5-foot- 8 and has an inch of reach at 69. The additional inch of height and reach that Nunes has represents a small edge, especially since her physicality plays into her technical game. The most noteworthy difference is in their layoffs. Nunes has fought twice already this year. Rousey has not fought in over a year.

If Rousey doesn’t get Nunes on the ground, Rousey will lose again. Nunes is the better striker. In her UFC/Strikeforce career, she has built a 1.42 striking differential, which is significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute. Rousey has managed only 0.69 in her combined UFC/Strikeforce career.

The ground is Rousey’s wheelhouse. There’s a reason she lost to Holm as she couldn’t get her off her feet. Rousey attempts one more takedown per round than Nunes and completes more than three times the amount per round. In her UFC/Strikeforce career Rousey has earned seven of her 10 wins via submission. Nunes has not been submitted since her professional debut in 2008. In the UFC, she has allowed only three submissions.

Betting Prediction: Amanda Nunes

The Rousey myth has been blown up. Take the underdog Nunes to send Rousey into retirement.