While the race for the 4 playoff spots available in college football is always exciting, there is a little bit of predictability that comes into play. It seems as though the SEC is always going to be given the benefit of the doubt by the playoff committee, which often means that they have two teams representing the conference in the postseason. It is also clear that anyone outside of the Power 5 Conferences is going to have a tough time breaking into the top group. That is bad news for the Group of Five Conferences, with the likes of UCF and Boise State reduced to playing for a spot in one of the New Year’s Six Bowl Games.

It’s not a bad consolation, but it’s certainly not as big as playing for a National Championship. The Boise State Broncos are having another big year and look to be well on their way to another Mountain West Conference Championship Game. They will try to lock that down when they host the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday night. The Broncos are in as a 27 ½ point favorite, with the point total set at 59.

New Mexico vs Boise State 2019 College Football Week 12 Odds & Prediction

• When: Saturday, November 16 at 10:15 PM EST
• Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise
• TV: ESPN2
• Radio: SiriusXM
• Live Stream: WatchESPN
• College Football Week 12 Odds: Boise State -27.5 (Total 59)

Arizona vs Oregon 2019 College Football Week 12 Odds, Game Info & Pick

Why bet on the New Mexico Lobos?

The New Mexico Lobos come into this game knowing that they have a monumental task on their hands, not just to try and win it, but to simply keep the score respectable. They are just 2-7 on the season and are on a losing skid that has seen them lose 6 in a row, which includes all 5 games that they have had against conference foes. It actually gets a whole lot worse in that category, as they have now lost 12 straight games versus tea, in the Mountain West.

It’s not even as if this team has been particularly competitive, as their 2-10 record against the spread in their last 12 games tells you that they have not. That said, they have covered in 6 of their last 8 versus Boise State, so perhaps a glimmer of hope there.

Team Stats

• Points per Game: 23.44
• Passing Yards: 218.67
• Rushing Yards: 200.22
• Yards per Play: 5.99

• Points per Game: 35.78
• Passing Yards: 340.44
• Rushing Yards: 149.67
• Yards per Play: 6.57

Why bet on the Boise State Broncos?

Any talk about the Broncos having a say in the playoff race was ended a few weeks ago with a loss to BYU, their only defeat of the season to this point. The focus now is solely on winning the division and once again taking a trip to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. The Broncos are certainly in the driver’s seat there, going unbeaten in conference games this season at 5-0.

They are also a perfect 4-0 at home this season and have dominated this matchup in recent years, going 9-1 SU in their last 10 games versus New Mexico. The average margin of victory in those games was 19 PPG, so perhaps the point spread is a little too high. 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two have ended with the point total going UNDER.

Team Stats

• Points per Game: 35.44
• Passing Yards: 280.22
• Rushing Yards: 168.56
• Yards per Play: 6.19

• Points per Game: 22.67
• Passing Yards: 226.11
• Rushing Yards: 117.00
• Yards per Play: 5.23

New Mexico vs Boise State College Football Week 12 Betting Trends

• Lobos are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games this season
• Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 12
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Mexico’s last 18 games played on a Saturday
• Broncos are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games this season
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boise State’s last 5 games played in week 12

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for New Mexico vs Boise State

As far as wagering on this one goes, I think the UNDER seems like a good bet, as I don’t see New Mexico delivering too much on the offensive side of the football. I also like Boise State to win and cover.

Score: New Mexico Lobos 10 Boise State Broncos 42