Bet 2024 GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Toledo, Analysis

College football’s bowl season goes dark on Christmas but returns for three games on Thursday with the first of the day featuring Pittsburgh of the ACC taking on Toledo of the MAC in the GameAbove Sports Bowl from Detroit.

The Panthers are nearly TD favorites on the NCAAF odds.

Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: Pittsburgh -6.5 (total 50.5)
Expert Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Toledo 24

How to Bet Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Odds & TV Info

Moneylines: Pittsburgh -250 vs Toledo +199
When: Thursday, 2 PM ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+

Pittsburgh Panthers Analysis

Pittsburgh closed the season on a five-game skid after losing 34-23 at home to Boston College in the regular-season finale on Nov. 30 playing without starting QB Eli Holstein and top RB Desmond Reid due to injury. Making his second start of the season, Nate Yarnell went 23 of 42 for 296 yards with three TD passes —two to Gavin Bartholomew — in the loss. With Yarnell in the transfer portal, the Panthers would turn to redshirt freshman David Lynch if Holstein isn’t healthy enough.

Pat Narduzzi

But Coach Pat Narduzzi shared an optimistic outlook on his team’s injury report recently, saying Pitt will be “a heck of a lot healthier” than it was when it fell to Boston College. Narduzzi said following the loss at Boston College that Reid would be ready to play in the bowl game, and recently added that Holstein is getting healthier. But Narduzzi wasn’t able to say anything definite about his quarterback’s status for the GameAbove Sports Bowl.

“I want them to be hungry and fresh,” Narduzzi said of his players. “So we will be fresh coming into that game. We will not overwork them. And again, we need time to get healthy. … We’ve been banged up since [the Cal game], probably the most banged-up football team I’ve been around in my career, so the rest will be well needed.”

Desmond Reid

Reid was named to a few All-America teams as an all-purpose back, and was named first team All-ACC at two different positions (all-purpose back and return specialist) by the league’s coaches and media. Despite missing two full games due to injury, Reid netted a team-high 797 rushing yards and scored four touchdowns on 151 carries (5.3 avg.). He was also Pitt’s second-leading receiver with 47 catches for 564 yards (12.0 avg.) and four scores.

Reid leads the Panthers with nine total touchdowns: four rushing, four receiving and one via a 78-yard punt return. Entering the bowl season, Reid is the only player in the nation to compile three games with at least 100 receiving yards and 50 rushing yards in 2024. That feat was last accomplished by Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey in 2015.

Kyle Louis

Linebacker Louis, one of the most disruptive defenders in all the college football this season, has been named a First Team All-American by a few outlets. Louis became the first sophomore defensive player at Pitt to earn First Team All-America from an NCAA-recognized selector since the legendary Hugh Green in 1978. Louis has 97 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, four interceptions (not including his interception of a 2-point conversion pass) and a forced fumble.

He finished third in ACC Defensive Player of the Year balloting and was the only non-senior among the top-five vote getters. All-ACC safety Donovan McMillon (team-high 108 tackles) is the first Pitt player to record consecutive 100-tackle seasons since linebacker Scott McKillop in 2007-08. The Panthers have been fixtures in the opposing backfield. Pitt ranks third nationally in sacks (3.33 avg.) and fourth in tackles for loss (8.3 avg.).

The Transfers

Pitt has lost 12 players to the transfer portal so far, and leading receiver Konata Mumpfield has already declared for the 2025 NFL draft, so he isn’t expected to play against Toledo. But the good news is Narduzzi believes at least 90% of the team’s seniors will play.

The 2024 GameAbove Sports Bowl marks Pitt’s 38th all-time postseason appearance and seventh under the direction of Narduzzi. Pitt is 2-0 all-time in Detroit-hosted bowl games, most recently defeating Eastern Michigan, 34-30, in 2019. Pitt also played at Ford Field in 2013 and scored a 30-27 win over Bowling Green. A victory over the Rockets would give the Panthers an eighth victory on the year and mark a five-game improvement over 2023’s three-win campaign.

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Toledo Rockets Analysis

The Rockets started the year hot, rolling past Mississippi State 41-17 in Starkville to start 3-0. But Toledo couldn’t keep the momentum going and lost its final two conference games to fall out of contention for the MAC championship game, including an overtime defeat to rival Akron, which hadn’t defeated Toledo since 2013.

Tucker Gleason

Leading Toledo’s offense is junior quarterback Gleason, who has thrown for 2,457 yards and 22 touchdowns while completing 61.8% of his passes. Gleason has a pair of first-team All-MAC wide receivers to target, Jerjuan Newton (64 receptions, 949 yards, 11 TDs) and Junior Vandeross III (73 receptions, 763 yards, 4 TDs). Newton led the MAC with 11 touchdowns and is Toledo’s all-time leader in career TD receptions (32), and ranks fifth in career receiving yards (2,843) and sixth in career receptions (198).

Jacquez Stuart

Tailback Stuart made the All-MAC first-team as a kickoff returner for a second straight season. He is averaging 32.5 yards on 12 returns this season, which leads the MAC and would be second in the country if he had enough attempts to qualify. He had a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown vs. UMass, which was the third time he has taken a kickoff the distance in his career.

Maxen Hook

Defensively, first-team All-MAC safety Hook leads the Rockets with 107 tackles to go with two interceptions and four pass breakups. Defensive tackle Darius Alexander (34 tackles, 6.5 TFLs) and cornerback Avery Smith (13 breakups, 2 interceptions) made second-team All-MAC, while linebacker Daniel Bolden (91 tackles) made the third team.

Jason Candle

Candle, who has 72 wins as Toledo’s head coach, needs one more win to tie Gary Pinkel (73 wins from 1991-2000) as the Rockets’ all-time victory leader. No team in the Mid-American Conference has won more games than Toledo during Candle’s tenure. Candle, who has won two MAC titles and twice been named the league’s Coach of the Year, has never had a losing season as head coach.

The Record

Toledo enters the GameAbove Sports Bowl with a 7-5 record, its 15th consecutive season without a losing record, the third-longest streak among FBS schools. The Rockets are 12-9 in bowl games, going back to their first bowl win in the Tangerine Bowl in 1969. Toledo has played in bowl games in the Detroit area on four different occasions: the Motor City Bowl at the Pontiac Silverdome in 2011 and at Ford Field in 2002 and 2004, and the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl in 2010.

“We’re excited to get an opportunity to play a Power Four opponent in what I believe will be a first-class trip for our team, and close to home, a place where our fan base will have an opportunity to come see us in person and hopefully make Ford Field feel like a home game,” said Candle “A bowl trip is a reward for a good season.”

Toledo has a chance to do something that only one other Rocket team has done — win two games against a power conference opponent after that early season win over Mississippi State. The only time the Rockets defeated two power conference opponents in the same year was in 2015 when they knocked off No. 18 Arkansas on the road and Iowa State at home. Candle was the offensive coordinator at the time for the Rockets under current Iowa State Head Coach Matt Campbell.

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Series History

Pittsburgh and Toledo will meet for the first time in 18 years and fourth time overall. The Panthers hold a 2-1 series edge and won the most recent encounter, 45-3, in 2006. Pitt is 34-5 all-time against Mid-American Conference foes.

The 2024 GameAbove Sports Bowl match up is set!@Pitt_FB
vs@ToledoFB

📅December 26, 2024
⏰2:00 P.M. EST
📍 Ford Field | Detroit, MI pic.twitter.com/pDOxlUHZMA
— GameAbove Sports Bowl (@GameAboveBowl) December 8, 2024