The San Diego Padres are one of the best teams in Major League Baseball at home, and the Colorado Rockies are one of MLB’s worst on the road. Thus, no surprise that the Padres will be heavy favorites for Thursday’s series opener vs. Colorado.

How to Bet Rockies at Padres MLB Odds & TV Info

• When: Thursday, 10:10 PM ET
• Where: Petco Park
• Probable pitchers (away/home): Kyle Freeland/Joe Musgrove
• TV: MLB Extra Innings
• Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
• Opening MLB Lines: TBA (Padres will be favored)

Why Bet on Colorado?

Just a reminder that the Rockies could trade All-Star shortstop Trevor Story at any time. He’s a free agent after the year so really no reason to keep him. The New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers are considered top suitors. Story’s defense previously was elite; he ranked in the top three among shortstops in defensive runs saved in 2019 and ‘20 before dropping to 12th this season. His hitting also is down this year. Story does have 16 career multi-HR games as a shortstop, the fourth-most in the expansion era (since 1961) behind Alex Rodriguez (31), Cal Ripken Jr. and Nomar Garciaparra (18 each).

Since July 1, the Rockies rank second to last in the NL with a .219 average with runners in scoring position. Their .289 OBP is the lowest and their .377 slugging percentage ranks as the third-lowest over that span.

It’s lefty Kyle Freeland (1-5) on the mound. Freeland yielded one run on five hits over seven innings in last Saturday’s 1-0 loss to the Dodgers. He fanned seven without walking a batter, with only a solo home run by Austin Barnes in the second inning marring the would-be shutout. Freeland navigated a potent Los Angeles lineup and required just 89 pitches but he ended up the loser as Colorado managed just two hits against Los Angeles’ staff.

“He moved the ball in-and-out, and a couple times where he did get into a difficult situation, he was able to get a groundball double-play there,” then-acting Rockies manager Mike Redmond said. “He looked totally in control and it was fun to watch him. I just wish we were able to score a couple runs there to get him a big win.”

Over his past six outings spanning 35 innings, Freeland has posted a 2.06 ERA and has allowed one run or less in four of those outings. He’s also walked just seven while striking out 34. Overall, he has a 4.85 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 11 starts this season after getting a late start due to injury.

He pitched in San Diego on July 9 and allowed three runs over five innings. Freeland was inspected by the Rockies training staff in the sixth inning for a blister before being lifted from the contest.

Why Bet on San Diego?

The Padres already made one big trade ahead of the deadline, landing All-Star Adam Frazier from Pittsburgh. Frazier made his San Diego debut on Tuesday and went 2-for-5 with a pair of runs scored on Tuesday in the Padres’ win over the Athletics. He hit leadoff and played left field; Frazier also will play second base many games.

San Diego would like to trade first baseman Eric Hosmer, but he’s sporting an underwhelming .710 OPS this season and is still owed $59 million over the next four seasons. Thus, the Padres would likely have to include a top-four prospect to make a Hosmer trade possible. In February 2018, the Padres signed Hosmer to what was, at the time, the largest contract in franchise history.

The Friars start Joe Musgrove (6-7), he of the no-hitter earlier this year. Musgrove surrendered two runs on six hits over six innings in last Friday’s win over the Marlins. the 28-year-old right-hander gave up a solo home run to Adam Duvall in the second inning and an RBI double to Jesus Aguilar in the third inning, but otherwise, kept the Marlins at bay. Musgrove tossed 69 of 98 pitches for strikes while delivering his first quality start since June 23 and his eighth of the year.

“It very easily could have turned into a tough outing,” said Musgrove, who continued to struggle with the feel for his slider. “I feel I did a good job slowing things down … and finished strong.”

There is nothing that structurally appears wrong with his slider. The average spin rate has remained stagnant. The velocity is about the same. The only consistent difference mechanically is the horizontal break has decreased by about a degree in his last three starts. . Musgrove’s slider usually results in swings and misses 35.6 percent of the time. In his last four starts, that number has dropped to 25 percent. He simply might be getting tired.

Overall, Musgrove has a 3.13 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 123/28 K/BB ratio (109 1/3 innings). He faced the Rockies at home on July 10 and allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits over 4 1/3 innings. Musgrove took the loss.

Game Trends

• Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
• Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
• Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
• Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
• Rockies are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings in San Diego.
• Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego.

Expert Prediction

• Padres 6, Rockies 3

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