2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds, Predictions & Preview

2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds, Predictions & Preview

Written by on March 29, 2019

Six races into the 2019 NASCAR season brings us to the first of two scheduled trips to the Lone Star State for the 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Texas Motor Speedway in Fortworth will be the site of Sunday’s race which made it NASCAR debut back in 1997. With Denny Hamlin looking for his second win of the season after claiming the highly coveted Daytona 500 and both, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch looking to nail down their respective third wins of the season, let’s find out which drivers make my top five picks as the most likely to bring home the bacon this weekend. Busch is the prohibitive favorite at 5-2 odds, with Keselowski close behind at 7-2 odds. Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick are identical 5-1 picks and Martin Truex Jr. rounds of the top five as a 7-1 pick.

2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds, Predictions & Preview

Race Info

  • When: Sunday, March 31st, 3pm ET
  • Where: Texas Motor Speedway, Fort Worth, Texas
  • TV: FOX
  • Live Stream: FoxSportsGo

Past Winners

  • 2018: Kyle Busch
  • 201: Jimmie Johnson
  • 2016: Kyle Busch
  • 2015 Jimmie Johnson
  • 2014: Joey Logano
  • 2013: Kyle Busch

Odds to Win 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

  • Kyle Busch 5-2
  • Brad Keselowski 7-2
  • Joey Logano 5-1
  • Kevin Harvick 5-1
  • Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
  • Ryan Blaney 10-1
  • Kyle Larson 18-1
  • Denny Hamlin 25-1
  • Aric Almirola 30-1
  • Kurt Busch 30-1
  • Clint Bowyer 30-1
  • Erik Jones 30-1
  • Chase Elliott 30-1

Kyle Busch

  • 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds: +250

Busch may have had his two-race winning streak snapped by finishing third at Martinsville last weekend, but he’s dominated this race by winning two of the last three events at Fortworth and three of the last six races overall. Busch has two wins, a second place finish at Daytona and a pair of third place finishes at Las Vegas and Martinsville. Yeah…he’s my top pick to bring home the hardware here for the second straight year!

Kevin Harvick

  • 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds: +500

In the four races at Texas since 2017, Kevin Harvick has recorded a pair of wins in the fall and a pair of Top 5 finishes in this event, including a second place finish a year ago. In his last 10 appearances on this track, Harvick has two wins, three second place finishes and five Top 10 finishes in every other appearance.

Joey Logano

  • 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds: +500

Logano is looking good despite finishing 19th at Martinsville last weekend. The reigning NASCAR champ has followed three Top 5 finishes this season with finishes sitting between 10th and 23rd. Apparently, Logano is due for a good showing if his form this year holds true. Besides, Logano is the only driver not named Kyle Busch or Jimmie Johnson (I’ll get to him later) to win at Fortworth in the last six years.

Logano has also finished seventh or better in 10 of his last 12 appearances at Texas Motor Speedway.

Kyle Larson

  • 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds: +1800

Larson might have finished 36t in this event a year ago, but he also finished fifth here in the fall in the AAA Texas 500 while finishing second in this event in 2017. Larson also recorded a pair of Top 10 finishes on this track in 2014. Larson has finished in the Top 20 in all six races this year while finishing 12th or better five times and recording two Top 10 finishes. I like Larson’s underrated value in this one.

Jimmie Johnson

  • 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds: +6600

I know the legendary Jimmie Johnson is aging and hasn’t won a race since winning at Dover in June of 2017, but he’s still on the board as one of my top five picks simply because he’s experienced some serious success here and knows this track as well as any driver ever. Johnson won here in 2017 and won three straight times on this track between 2014 and 2015 including that year’s version of this event. Johnson has won at Fortworth six times in his career while finishing second on five other occasions. Johnson has also finished eighth or better in 10 of his last 16 appearances at Texas Motor Speedway while winning at least once on this track in five of the last seven years. It could happen!

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