It is the final race day of the NASCAR season this weekend in Phoenix, with the Season Finale 500 being the race that will decide who ends the year as champion. Perhaps the most surprising thing about this final race is that Kevin Harvick will come into it with no shot at winning it all. Harvick has the most wins on the season and was on top of the driver standings for weeks. He got cold at the wrong time, though, and ended the Round of 8 below the cut line. What we do have now is 4 drivers with a shot at winning the Championship, but which of them will be crowned as champion once all is said and done on Sunday night? Let’s take a closer look at the final four and how they might make out this weekend, along with their NASCAR odds.
NASCAR Cup Series: Season Finale 500 Betting Analysis
Joey Logano (+450)
When you get to the final race of the season with a 1 in 4 chance of coming away as champions, you look for every advantage that you can get. In the case of Joey Logano, he has a rather clear one ahead of the final race in Phoenix. That edge is that he already has a win at this track, with that one coming back in March. He is also on a bit of a tear, with a win and a pair of podium finishes over the last 4 weeks. This is a driver who is getting hot at the best time possible, but can he maintain that for one more race? You certainly have to like his chances.
Chase Elliott (+550)
If you believe that momentum is important in the race for a championship, then you need to believe that Chase Elliott might just be the man to beat here. With the pressure squarely on his shoulders last weekend, Elliott got the win and a spot in the final four, dropping Kevin Harvick out of the running in the process. He now has 2 wins in the last 4 races, but the problem here is that he has not been particularly great at Phoenix. Elliott had a 7th place run there earlier this season, but that was his best performance since 2018. This may help explain why he is sitting behind a few others on the bookies board.
Brad Keselowski (+400)
Keselowski is a bit of a tough one to figure out in terms of this race. He has been consistent in the past 3 weeks, never finishing worse than 6th, which means that he has picked up more than enough points to stay in the top 4. The downside is that he does not have a win at Phoenix and made the top 10 there just once in his last 3 runs. His best run at Phoenix came in 2018 when he finished 2nd, but that is a bit of a blip on the radar when you compare it to his other performances.
Denny Hamlin (+450)
Of the 4 drivers left with a shot at winning the championship, none have more wins than the 7 that Hamlin has picked up this season. Despite that, he still made it in by the skin of his teeth, as he has not been particularly great in the 4 races since his win at Talladega. Poor form or not, you cannot discount his ability to get wins in big races. You also cannot ignore the fact that he won at this track last season, his 2nd career win at Phoenix.