Bellator 200 Betting Preview & Picks
Main Event Called Off
Actually the main event for Bellator 200 was to be Mirko Cro Cop against Roy Nelson in a Bellator World Heavyweight Grand Prix alternate bout. On Monday, Cro Cop pulled out due to knee injuries and surgery. There was some talk that the promotion would try to find a short-notice replacement to fight Nelson. However, that has been scrapped. Nelson and Cro Cop were to fight for the No. 1 alternate slot in Bellator’s yearlong heavyweight grand prix. Now, Nelson will automatically claim it and join the heavyweight title tournament should one of the remaining competitors be forced to bow out for whatever reason.Rafael Carvalho (15-1) vs. Gegard Mousasi (43-6)
Mousasi is the -360 favorite at MyBookie with Carvalho at +290. Why is the champion not favored? Because on the middleweight pound-for-pound rankings, Mousasi is No. 5 in the world. He was a lock to get a title shot after he signed with Bellator last year. The former UFC and Strikeforce veteran earned a narrow decision win against Alexander Shlemenko in his promotional debut in October. Mousasi got the win but took a beating in the process. Mousasi’s game plan went out the window in the opening round after Shlemenko landed a left hand that nearly closed Mousasi’s right eye. In the final round, Shlemenko opened up with his strikes and landed a spinning back fist and combinations. At one point, Mousasi fell to his back. Mousasi absorbed big shots in the third round but managed to survive. The judges scored the fight for Mousasi by unanimous decision to the sound of boos from fans. Shlemenko said he was robbed and joined a chorus of many others saying that Bellator needs to adopt five-round fights for non-title headliners like the UFC does. Even though he suffered a serious eye injury that bothers him to this day, Mousasi views his follow-up as a chance to prove he’s more than someone who merely survived a tough opponent. The former Strikeforce champ frequently took down Shlemenko and threatened chokes from back control despite a broken orbital bone to his left eye. Mousasi is now lighter than usual to be the faster fighter in this bout, which he figures will give him another edge if the clash goes the distance. “I have a lot of advantages, because he’s not a wrestler,” Mousasi said. “He’s not really a jiu-jitsu guy. He doesn’t push the pace, so it’s an advantage for me. I have my game plan.” Mousasi has earned 35 of his 43 career victories by stoppage. He’s finished 31 of those wins in Round 1. Carvalho won the vacant Bellator middleweight belt in 2015 and has recorded three successful title defenses but not against great competition. Carvalho comes off a first-round knockout (elbow) of Alessio Sakara in December. “I always prepare for five rounds,” Carvalho said after. “I didn’t expect it to end so fast like that. My shots just connected, one after the other, and I was able to win and keep my belt. When I threw that elbow, my intention was to cut him. When I noticed it really hurt him and that he was crumbling down, I couldn’t miss that chance.” Carvalho is still undefeated in Bellator, with six straight wins. His sole professional loss was in his first fight back in December 2011 to Julio Cesar Araujo Fernandes in Samurai FC. Carvalho’s three consecutive Bellator title defenses are the most among current champions and as many as all other champions combined. No one else has more than one.David Rickels (19-4) vs. Michael Page (12-0)
