Last Minute Betting Picks & Prediction for Mayweather vs. McGregor Fight

Posted by Kenny Bell on Friday,August 25, 2017 10:15, EST in

Likely one of two things is going to happen Saturday night from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas: Either the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight will be fantastic, lead to a rematch and change the sports of boxing and MMA forever; or it will be a boring farce and we won’t see an MMA fighter going into the ring again anytime soon – at least that we care about. As of now, Mayweather is -550 favorite with McGregor at +400 at MyBookie. The over/under is 9.5 rounds, with the under a solid favorite.

Last Minute Betting Picks & Prediction for Mayweather vs. McGregor Fight

Floyd Believes In Self

It’s well-known that Mayweather is a prodigious gambler. However, “Money” claims he has never bet on himself in a fight – that would be legal, by the way. Obviously fighters couldn’t bet against themselves. Apparently Mayweather is ready to throw out his superstition and bet $5 million on himself for Saturday’s fight.

During the final press conference between the two this week, UFC president Dana White said: “Conor will become the greatest combat sportsman of all time by beating the great Mayweather. Mayweather responded by saying: “I’m looking at putting the most I’ve ever done at the sports book that this won’t happen.”

Mayweather can afford it. The 40-year-old is expected to earn more than $200 million from his first fight since he easily beat Andre Berto in September 2015. McGregor has said that Mayweather’s gambling habits have forced him to take their fight.

“I think he has a big-time gambling problem,” McGregor said. “From seeing him, he gambles on halftimes and things like that. He shows what his wins are, never shows what the losses are. Maybe that’s why he is in this position he is in and he had to take this fight. So look, I’m focused on the fight – not gambling.”

Mayweather vs. McGregor Fight Last Thoughts

Stats To Know

It’s well-known that Mayweather is a defensive genius – maybe the best defensive fighter in history as he tries to become the first boxer to ever go 50-0. In his mega-fight two years ago against Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather was hit on just 81 of Pacquiao’s 429 punches attempted (19 percent). On jabs, it was a scant 18 of 193 that connected (nine percent). Pacquiao is way better than McGregor.

As a matter of fact, opponents have a 19 percent connect percentage against Mayweather, the fourth-lowest defense rate among active fighters. In 40 pro fights tracked by CompuBox, Mayweather has only been out-landed once: Jose Luis Castillo in 2002 (203-157).

McGregor landed 36 percent of boxing punches in 10 UFC fights. All three of his MMA losses were by submission (never knocked down or out in 10 UFC fights).

This isn’t the first time Mayweather will fight a guy making his pro boxing debut like McGregor is doing. Mayweather has done so twice, more than 20 years ago, winning each by second-round TKO.

Mayweather vs. McGregor on August 26th.

Does Glove Size Matter?

The Nevada State Athletic Commission has controversially broken its own rule by voting in a one-time exception to allow the contracted glove size changed in this 154-pound fight from 10 ounces down to 8 ounces. Boxing matches contested above 147 pounds mandates 10-ounce gloves, per NSAC rules.

Some believe this helps McGregor because he usually fights with 4-ounce gloves in the UFC. McGregor’s head coach John Kavanagh said his pupil will finish the fight in the first round with 8-ounce gloves, while McGregor himself predicted the second round. But Mayweather has fought all but three fights with 8-ounce gloves and that just makes his hands that much faster.

“His hand speed is crazy,” Mayweather sparring partner Daquan May said. “Man. He spars with 14-ounce gloves, sometimes 16s, sometimes 18s. … The 8-ounce gloves are gonna hurt. There’s gonna be a lot of pain in those 8-ounce gloves. That’s gonna be a big advantage.”

Referee & Judges for Mayweather vs. McGregor

While the oddsmakers don’t expect this to go over 9.5 rounds, 23 of Mayweather’s 49 wins are by decision. Mayweather has not knocked out an opponent since his somewhat controversial fourth-round stoppage of Victor Ortiz in September 2011 So the referee and judges could be important here. Only a referee can stop a fight, for example, or deduct points. Robert Byrd is the referee and the NSAC appointed veteran judges Burt Clements, Dave Moratti and Guido Cavalleri to work the bout. This will be Byrd’s second fight involving Mayweather after Byrd officiated his 2013 victory over Robert Guerrero in Las Vegas.

Byrd also recently officiated Andre Ward’s TKO win against Sergey Kovalev and George Groves’ loss to Badou Jack. Before becoming a boxing referee and judge, Byrd worked for 34 years as a Highway Patrol Officer in California. The 74-year-old boxed at an amateur level during his time in the military and later married fellow boxing judge Adalaide Byrd.

Byrd, who’s overseen several high-profile boxing matches, will be paid $25,000 for the job. He has been described a referee who “who doesn’t meddle too much and gives boxers wide latitude, often standing off to the side, keeping a respectful distance” and who “often uses his voice to break the fighters” apart.

Expert Mayweather vs. McGregor Prediction

Both guys have predicted early knockouts. I have no doubt that McGregor will come out aggressive to put the seeds of doubt in Mayweather’s mind. Plus McGregor has never come close to going 12 rounds. “One hundred percent, it will not go the distance,” Mayweather said this week. “One hundred percent
chance this fight won’t go the distance.” I disagree. In conclusion, Mayweather wins by decision. That exact result is priced at +160 at MyBookie.