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If we have learned anything from the first month of the college football season, it’s that we should expect the unexpected.

There have been surprises aplenty this season, perhaps none bigger than Vanderbilt beating Alabama last weekend, just one week after the Crimson Tide picked up a huge win over the Georgia Bulldogs.

My Analysis

In seasons past, the Crimson Tide would almost certainly be on the brink of playoff elimination with that loss, but we are now in a new era of college football.

This is the first year of the 12-team playoff, which means that a loss of that magnitude is not going to be totally awful for the losing team.

The question now is whether a team from outside the Power 4 conferences can catch lightning in a bottle and make a National Championship run.

The first 5 spots in the new playoff setup will be taken by the best conference winners, which means we are going to have a team outside of the Power 4 taking one of those spots.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Group of 5 to see if a team from those conferences could potentially be in the National Championship conversation.

AAC

The Tulane Green Wave (+118) are in as the favorite to win the AAC, but it already looks as though they are going to have some stiff competition. Tulane has won both of their conference games to this point, but they are trailing the Army Black Knights, who are a perfect 4-0 in conference play.

Career long TD run for the hometown kid! @HughesMakhi’s 51-yard score is the Call of the Game! #UptownFootball pic.twitter.com/9eGyKQ4nWl
— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) October 7, 2024

Army has surrendered just 49 points in those games, so they are going to be tough to take down. To put things in perspective, Tulane are currently listed at +95000 to win the Natty, so I’m not sure we will see a champion come from this conference.

Conference USA

In my opinion, this is the conference that is least likely to yield a National Championship winner, for now at least. The Liberty Flames are leading the way right now, starting the season at 5-0, with 3 of those wins coming in conference play.

They are at -125 to win the conference, which makes them the clear favorite to come out on top, but that does not guarantee them a playoff spot. The Sam Houston Bearkats look to be their biggest rivals right now, as they have won both conference games to this point, going 4-1 overall. Just making it into the playoffs, even as a champion, seems unlikely.

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MAC

It is perhaps a little too early to start talking about a potential champion in this conference, as they haven’t really gotten into the heart of their conference schedule. The Toledo Rockets (+210) are the favorites to win the MAC, and they are off to a good start, going 4-1 (1-0 in conference play).

They had a massive win over Mississippi State on the road, winning that one 41-17 and proving that they can hold their own against a Power 4 team. That said, they would have to beat much stronger teams to make it to the National Championship Game, which is where things become a little more problematic for the Rockets, as well as every other team sitting outside the Power Conferences. Right now, the Rockets are listed at +100000 to win the Natty.

Mountain West

This, for me, is where things start to get a little interesting in terms of talking about a potential National Championship winner. Right now, we have the Boise State Broncos sitting as the #17 team in the nation. They also have an absolute game changer in their lineup in running back Ashton Jeanty, who is posting massive numbers and already being touted as a potential Heisman candidate.

At odds of -147, the Broncos are the overwhelming favorite to win the Mountain West, plus they also look like the team most likely to nab one of those top 5 spots. Realistically, though, they would be the #5 team, which would mean having to play one more game than the top 4. Boise State is currently listed at +20000 to win the Natty, so they are still very much a longshot.

Does Boise State's RB Ashton Jeanty have a shot at winning the Heisman? 👀

Former Heisman winner @DesmondHoward weighs in ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/9spCxM9XEA
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 8, 2024

Sun Belt

This might be the most wide-open conference in the Group of 5, as there are 3 or 4 teams that you could make a case for to win the Sun Belt. Winning the conference is one thing but going all the way to the championship game and winning that is a different conversation altogether. The bookies have Texas State (+255) in as the favorite to win the conference, with James Madison (+340) and Louisiana (+480) also in the conversation.

Given that James Madison has already lost a conference game, their path to the conference championship looks a good deal rockier than the other two. In terms of the National Championship, Texas State is currently listed at +125000, while Louisiana is +150000.

Can a Non-Power Conference Team Win the National Championship?

Right now, I think you have to say that no is the easy answer to this question. There are currently no teams outside of the Power Conferences listed in the top 12 teams in the nation, but one of them is going to find a way in by winning their conference.

For me, Boise State looks like the obvious pick, but as we mentioned earlier, they would need to play an extra game, as you can bet that the Power Conference champions will make up the top 4, all of whom get a bye into the 2nd round. While the Broncos could make some noise and potentially take out the #12 team, I just don’t see them hanging with the big boys as the playoffs progress.