#5 Florida State vs Florida Game Odds and Expert Analysis for Week 13

Saturday’s rivalry game between No. 5 Florida State and unranked Florida means everything for the Seminoles as they try to stay on track for the College Football Playoff and still have the ACC title game to worry about after this one. 2023 NCAAF Expert Analysis #5 Florida State vs Florida | MyBookie Sportsbook |

The season will be over for the Gators unless they pull the upset and get bowl eligible. Both starting QBs will miss the game.

How to Bet Florida State at Florida NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, 7 PM ET
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: Tunein.com
Opening NCAAF Lines: FSU -6.5 (total 50)

Series History

Florida leads the all-time series 37-27-2, including 22-12-1 in Gainesville. Florida State has won eight of the last 12 matchups. Last year, the Noles won 45-38 at home. Trey Benson had a 17-yard touchdown run with 4:06 left for the winning score. Benson had 111 yards rushing and three touchdowns, and QB Jordan Travis ran for 83 yards and two touchdowns. The Seminoles ran for 228 yards. Travis also completed 13 of 30 passes for 270 yards. Florida drove the field in the final minutes but Anthony Richardson’s fourth-down pass over the middle fell incomplete with 39 seconds to go. It was the highest scoring game in the Florida State-Florida rivalry, which dates to 1958.

Why Bet on Florida State?

No. 5 FSU (11-0) beat North Alabama 58-13 last week but lost star QB Jordan Travis early to a season-ending injury. Going into Saturday’s game, which had been FSU’s final home game of the year and was senior night, the sixth-year senior Travis had thrown for 2,734 yards and 20 touchdowns. He had an additional seven rushing touchdowns before going down in the first quarter with a leg injury.

Travis has helped bring Florida State back to the top echelon of college football, throwing for 8,715 yards career, which ranks second in school history, while amassing a school-record 10,676 yards of total offense. He is the only player in school history ranked in the top 10 on FSU’s career passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns lists. Florida State has clinched a spot in the ACC championship game against Louisville on Dec. 2.

The problem now for FSU is not simply that it has lost its leader, the beating heart of the program, but that its neighbors in the College Football Playoff committee’s top 10 have ceded no ground, and Travis’ leg will be as much a part of the committee’s conversations as Alabama’s resurgence or Oregon‘s dominance.

Tate Rodemaker, who has spent the past two seasons as Travis’ backup, entered the North Alabama game and threw for 217 yards and two touchdowns as the Seminoles scored 58 unanswered points. Rodemaker will start going forward.

The win over North Alabama extended the Seminoles’ winning streak to 17 games, the longest active streak in the ACC and 3rd-longest active streak in the country. During its streak, which is also tied for the 2nd-longest in program history and 3rd-longest ever by an ACC program, Florida State has outscored its opponents 694-295.

FSU has held every opponent this season to fewer than 30 points. The 11-game streak is the longest active in the ACC and the 3rd-longest active streak in the country. The last time Florida State held at least 10 straight opponents to fewer than 30 points was a 12-game streak in 2015. The Seminoles boast one of the nation’s best pass defenses, leading the country in opponent completion percentage (47.2) and pass breakups (65). FSU’s defense also ranks 2nd nationally in total passes defended (73), 5th in fewest passing touchdowns allowed (8) and 5th in opponent passing efficiency (100.87).

Florida State (47.2%) is the only team in the nation forcing more incompletions than completions allowed. The last time a P5 team held its opponents below 50 percent completions in a season was 2018, when Michigan and LSU posted marks of 49.5 and 49.7 percent, respectively, and the last time FSU held its opponents below 50 percent completions for a season was 2012.

FSU leads the ACC in both scoring offense (40.1, 7th nationally) and scoring defense (16.9, 12th), and is the only team in the ACC and one of four nationally ranked in the top-12 in both categories. Florida State and Georgia are the only two teams in the country ranked in the top-20 in both passing offense and pass defense. FSU and Oregon are the only teams in the nation leading their conference in both pass efficiency and pass efficiency defense. Florida State’s offense leads the ACC in fewest turnovers (5, 1st nationally), interceptions thrown (2, 2nd), touchdowns scored (57, 6th), red zone offense (91.3%, 17th) and passing efficiency (160.43, 17th).

Why Bet on Florida?

Florida (5-6) must win this game to get bowl eligible. The Gators lost Saturday 33-31 at No. 8 Missouri and also lost starting QB Graham Mertz to an injury. Missouri kicker Harrison Mevis booted four field goals, including the game-winner with five seconds left to lift the ninth-ranked Tigers to victory. Missouri drove 62 yards on 12 plays on the game-winning drive, including converting a fourth-and-17 to keep its comeback bid alive.

“Gotta believe some good is going to come from it,” UF head coach Billy Napier said of his team’s fourth consecutive loss. “Right now, we have some guys that are hurting.”

Moments before Mevis’ 30-yard winner, it appeared the Gators were about to snap a three-game losing streak and become bowl eligible in the most unexpected way Saturday night — with backup QB Max Brown directing two fourth-quarter scoring drives in a come-from-behind upset. Near the end of the third quarter, Mertz took off to run and came up favoring his shoulder. He was then shown being taken to the locker room before the ESPN telecast said he bypassed the locker room and went straight to Missouri’s facilities for X-rays. The X-rays revealed a collarbone injury that will sideline him for at least the FSU game.

Mertz has completed 72.9% of his passes (261-for-358), which leads the SEC and ranks fifth nationally. Mertz ranks sixth in the FBS and second in the SEC in TD-INT ratio (6.7), owning 20 touchdowns and three interceptions. Brown will start this game.

“Graham has a non-displaced fracture of the collarbone, so he’ll be out for a little bit,” Napier said. “We’ll have more information whether it’s surgical or not, we think right now the belief is it may not be but we’ll need to get more images to make that decision.”

WR Eugene Wilson III leads all FBS true freshmen in receptions (58) and receptions per game (6.4) while sitting third in receiving yards per game (55.8) and fourth in receiving yards (502). Wilson III is the first Florida true freshman to eclipse 500 receiving yards since Antonio Callaway in 2015, who holds the UF freshman receiving record with 678 yards. Fellow WR Ricky Pearsall needs 52 receiving yards vs. Florida State to eclipse 1,000 yards receiving on the season. He is aiming to become the 11th Gators player to accomplish the feat including the first since Taylor Jacobs (1,088) in 2002.

Florida ranks 19th in the FBS with a 91.1% red zone conversion rate. The Gators have converted on 39 of 41 trips to the red zone across their last 10 games.

The Gators have won 13 of their last 16 games in The Swamp (including eight of 10), but are 2-16 in their last 18 contests outside The Swamp and 2-12 in their last 14 true road games. Across 15 meetings dating back to 2007, only three games in the UF-FSU series has been decided by single-digit points including each of the last two (2022, 2021, 2014).

College Football Expert Prediction

FSU 27, Florida 24

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