Illinois at Oregon Expert Picks, Betting Analysis, Odds, Week 9

A huge game in the Big Ten race as #20 Illinois, visits #1 unbeaten Oregon, with the Ducks as better than three touchdown favorites on the NCAAF odds.

Illinois at Oregon: 2024 NCAAF Expert Analysis in Week 9

Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: Oregon -21.5 (total 54.5)
Expert Prediction in Week 9: Oregon 35, Illinois 20

Illinois Fighting Illini +780

The No. 20 Illini (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) beat No. 24 Michigan 21-7 on Saturday. Despite totaling 55 more yards and having the ball seven minutes more than Illinois, Michigan only found the scoreboard once in the loss. U-M struggled to finish drives, committing three turnovers, including an interception deep in Illini territory. The U-M offense was held scoreless by the Fighting Illini for the final 31:40 of the contest.

The Deffense

Defensively, the Maize and Blue managed to hold Illinois to 21 points despite being forced into short-field situations on multiple occasions. U-M allowed just 80 passing yards, a season low for Illinois, and conversions on three of 11 third downs.

But the Illini defense forced three turnovers against the Wolverines. Gabe Jacas registered a game-high 13 tackles and 2.5 sacks, while Dylan Rosiek tallied a career-best 12 tackles. Matthew Bailey also finished with double-digit tackles (11) to go along with one forced fumble and an interception. TeRah Edwards made two sacks and forced a fumble. The seven points scored by Michigan were its fewest, being shut out by No. 16 Notre Dame on Sept. 6, 2014. It had scored 10+ points in 130 straight games.

📈📈📈 OLB Gabe Jacas @Gabeosama from @IlliniFootball racked up 13 tackles, 6 solo, 2.5 sacks/TFLs, 2 QBHs, and 1 forced fumble in the #Illini 21-7 win over Michigan. #famILLy #StocksGoingUp #TheDraftStartsInMOBILE™️ pic.twitter.com/flx3hyxdkv
— Reese's Senior Bowl (@seniorbowl) October 22, 2024

Against The Wolverines

The Illini rushed for 187 yards against the Wolverines. Michigan entered the game allowing just 76.3 yards on the ground, which ranked third in the country. The 187 yards are the most allowed by Michigan since Dec. 31, 2022, vs. TCU (263 yards). Aidan Laughery led the Illini’s ground attack with nine carries for 54 yards, while Josh McCray also reached the 50-yard rushing mark.

Luke Altmyer

Altmyer, who amassed 80 passing yards and 48 rushing yards, was credited with a rushing score in the third quarter. Altmeyer also had a TD pass and has 15 touchdown passes this season, the most by an Illinois quarterback since Tommy DeVito also had 15 in the 2022 season.

Illinois is off to a 6-1 start for the second time in Bret Bielema’s four seasons at Illinois (2022, 2024). The 6-1 start is tied for the best start by an Illinois team since starting 6-0-1 in 1953. Illinois is 6-1 with three AP Top 25 wins for the first time since 1990.

Illinois is 18th in the nation in red zone scoring percentage (93.1%). The Illini are 27-for-29 with 19 touchdowns. Illinois is 13th in the nation and second in the Big Ten in turnover margin (+1.0 per game). It is tied for fifth in the nation and leads the Big Ten in forced fumbles (10) and tied for 26th in the nation and third in the Big Ten in interceptions (8).

On Saturday, the Illini will face the #1 team in the nation for the 16th time in program history and the first time since the 2007 win at #1 Ohio State. The Fighting Illini are 3-12 against #1-ranked teams, with wins in 1950 (Ohio State), 1956 (Michigan State), and 2007 (at Ohio State). Illinois will travel west of the Rocky Mountains for the first time since the 2019 Redbox Bowl in Santa Clara, Calif. Saturday will be Illinois’ first regular season game out west since a nonconference trip to Washington in 2014.

Bret Bielema

Bielema is 5-6 (.455) against ranked teams (AP/Coaches/CFP) as Illinois’ head coach. His .455 winning percentage against ranked teams is the second-best in Illinois history, behind only John Mackovic (8-8, .500, 1988-91). Bielema’s five ranked wins (AP/Coaches/CFP) during his first four seasons are tied for the second-most in program history, behind Mackovic (8, 1988-91) and tied with Mike White (5, 1980-83).

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Week 9 Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Oregon Ducks -1493

Oregon (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) rose to the top spot in the AP poll after securing a 35-0 road victory over Purdue last Friday. Chip Kelly coached the only other Oregon teams to reach No. 1. The 2012 Ducks, led by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, were in the top spot for one week in November after following a 10-0 start with a loss to Stanford. The 2010 team, which lost to Auburn in the BCS title game, spent six weeks at No. 1. No team this season has held the No. 1 spot for more than three straight weeks.

Against the Boilermakers

The Purdue game could have been an easy letdown for Oregon after beating Ohio State, but it was an easy victory. Purdue entered that game with an FBS-high 17 wins against top-five teams in the Associated Press poll when the Boilermakers themselves were unranked. Purdue had five wins all-time against teams ranked No. 2, including a pair at Ross-Ade Stadium since 2018.

The Offensive

But Dillon Gabriel was 21-of-25 for 290 yards and two touchdowns, and Jordan James rushed for a pair of scores. Oregon averaged seven yards per play in running up 421 yards of offense, while the UO defense put together its first shutout since Sept. 22, 2012, against Arizona. The Ducks overcame adversity on several fronts, playing without star defensive lineman Jordan Burch for the second week in a row, plus receiver Traeshon Holden and tight end Terrance Ferguson. Oregon played its first road game against a traditional Big Ten school — the Ducks’ previous conference road trip was to UCLA — and came out sharp, scoring on their first three possessions.

Give us all the angles 🤩 @_dillongabriel_ 🤝 @TheLegitMpr #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/B9m0BgnWlf
— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) October 19, 2024

The Record

UO is off to a 7-0 start for the first time since 2013 and sixth time in program history. Oregon is one of 10 remaining undefeated teams in the nation, and one of three in the Big Ten, along with Penn State and Indiana. UO owns a pair of top-20 wins this season, with victories over No. 4 Ohio State and No. 17 Boise State. Gabriel leads the country with a terrific 77.0 completion percentage while also ranking No. 8 nationally in passer rating (173.33), No. 9 in passing yards per game (299.7) and completions (174), and tied for No. 15 in passing touchdowns (15).

The Ducks rank in the top 20 nationally for both total offense (16th, 461.1 YPG) and total defense (15th, 297.9), the top 30 for both scoring offense (26th, 34.6 PPG) and scoring defense (13th, 16.6 PPG), and the top 25 for both third-down offense (13th, 49.40%) and third-down defense (24th, 31.87%). UO has also been effective on special teams, as the Ducks are one of just five teams in the nation (BYU, Central Michigan, Tulsa, UNLV) with both a punt return and a kick return for a touchdown this season.

Oregon is 6-1 all-time as the nation’s No. 1 ranked team, with its lone loss coming in overtime to No. 14 Stanford on Nov. 7, 2012. Oregon is 35-1 (.972) at home since an overtime loss to Stanford on Sept. 22, 2018, a span that included 23 straight home wins to match the longest home win streak in program history. UO is 44-3 (.936) at home since the start of the 2017 season, boasting the nation’s fifth-best win percentage at home during that time, while tying for the fifth-most wins.

How to Watch Illinois at Oregon NCAA Football

When: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Autzen Stadium
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+

Illinois vs Oregon Series History

In modern history, Oregon is 2-1 against Illinois and won the last matchup 34-31 in 1995. Of course, the Ducks are now in the first season as a Big Ten program.

Week 9 draws:

▶️ 13 Indiana vs. Washington
▶️ 1 Oregon vs. No. 20 Illinois
▶️ 3 Penn State at Wisconsin#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/F7YqqVsf0u
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 21, 2024