#23 Kansas State vs. Kansas Game Odds and Expert Analysis for Week 12

The Sunflower Showdown is bigger than usual this season in college football because No. 21 Kansas State has a path to the Big 12 title game, but No. 25 Kansas is more than capable of the upset and ending a long losing streak in the series. The Wildcats are solid road favorites on the NCAAF odds. 2023 NCAAF Expert Analysis #23 Kansas State vs. Kansas | MyBookie Sportsbook |

How to Bet #23 Kansas State at Kansas NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, 7 PM ET
Where: Kansas Memorial Stadium
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream: Fox Sports Live app
Radio: Tunein.com
Opening NCAAF Lines: KSU -8 (total 56.5)

Series History

Saturday’s contest marks the 113th consecutive year that K-State and Kansas will meet on the gridiron. It is the fourth-longest uninterrupted series in the FBS and will become the third-longest next year as Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are not scheduled to play. In addition to the streak, this will be the 121st all-time meeting between the two schools, making it the ninth most-played rivalry in FBS history. K-State leads 64-51-5 and has won the past 14 and 27 of the past 32. The Wildcats’ average margin of victory over the last 14 years is 26.1, while they have hit the 45-point mark in seven of those contests.

Why Bet on Kansas State?

K-State appeared to have little hope of defending its conference title when it lost at Texas two weeks ago. But the Wildcats have several realistic paths to the Big 12 title after Oklahoma State surprisingly lost at UCF last week. Four teams (Iowa State, K-State, OSU, OU) are currently tied for second place in the league standings. We won’t even try to explain the Big 12’s tiebreaker rules because they are incredibly confusing and one issue here is that Kansas State and Oklahoma could tie for second but didn’t play each other.

The Wildcats benefit from most tiebreakers involving multiple teams. But they won’t hold any head-to-head tiebreakers over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Texas. Essentially, if KSU wins out it should be in and if it loses one of the final two, it probably won’t be.

Kansas State (7-3) comes off a 59-25 rout of Baylor. QB Will Howard was 19-of-29 for 235 yards and three touchdowns. He moved past Josh Freeman with 45 career touchdown passes to become the school’s all-time leader. It was Howard’s fifth game this season with at least three TD passes, tying Freeman for the school record.

The Cats are one of seven Power 5 teams to rank in the top 25 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. They enter play this week ranked 12th by scoring 38.8 points per game. Since Collin Klein took over as offensive coordinator in 2021, K-State is averaging 35.3 points per game, which includes hitting the 40-point mark in six games this season.

K-State’s ground game has led the way as it ranks No. 14 in the country with 202.1 rushing yards per game. Howard has had a resurgence over the last four weeks, throwing for 12 touchdowns with just one interception. In the last four games, he has tied a school record for passing touchdowns in a game (4) and also became the school’s career leader in touchdown passes.

Kansas State has been one of the best teams in the nation in terms of converting on third down, as the Wildcats are 11th nationally and second in the Big 12 with a 49.3% (67-of-136) success rate. K-State’s 67 total third-down conversions are tied for eighth in the country and are tops in the Big 12.

Over the last three weeks, K-State has outscored its opponents, 171-61, and has won the turnover battle with a plus-10 margin thanks to eight interceptions, including a pick-six last week by Keenan Garber. Garber’s score was one of two by the defense against Baylor as Desmond Purnell returned a fumble 15 yards for a touchdown. It was the first time K-State had two defensive scores in a game since 2017.

The K-State defense enters the week ranked in the top 25 nationally in third down defense (3rd – 26.7%), pass efficiency defense (14th – 113.6), defensive touchdowns (18th – 2) and scoring defense (21st – 18.5 ppg). Since the Cats switched to a 3-3-5 alignment to start the 2021 season (37 games), K-State has allowed just 20.6 points per game to tie for 16th in the nation and second in the Big 12.

Kansas State has three losses this season – all on the road – by a combined 14 points to teams ranked in the top 25 in this week’s Associated Press Top 25

Why Bet on Kansas?

KU technically is alive to reach the Big 12 title game but would have to win out and get so much help that it would take nearly a miracle. Last week’s 16-13 home loss to Texas Tech in which starting QB Jason Bean was knocked out early was a crusher. Bean is expected to play here, although starting WR Luke Grimm is in some question. Texas Tech won the game with two seconds remaining on a 30-yard field goal by Gino Garcia. Despite the loss, Kansas sits at 7-3 overall, its best record through the first 10 games since 2007.

With 137 rushing yards against Texas Tech, Kansas RB Devin Neal moved up to fifth on KU’s career rushing yardage list, passing Jayhawk greats John Riggins and Gale Sayers. In 34 games at KU, Neal has rushed for 2,762 and 27 touchdowns on 493 attempts, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Neal’s 137 yards Tech also marked his 10th career 100+ yard rushing game, which are the seventh-most in school history. Neal’s 27 career rushing touchdowns are the fourth most in school history trailing only Tony Sands (28), James Sims (34) and June Henley (41).

Should Neal rush for 35 yards on Saturday, he would become the third Jayhawk in program history to rush for 1,000+ yards in back-to-back seasons, joining Sims (2012-13) and Pooka Williams Jr. (2018-19). Defenses also need to account for Neal in the passing game, catching 23 passes for 212 yards and one touchdown this season. Neal’s 1,177 all-purpose yards are the fifth most in the Big 12 Conference this season.

KU has another good back in Daniel Hinshaw, who has rushed for 552 yards and eight touchdowns on 102 attempts this season. Over his last 15 games played, Hishaw has 14 touchdowns scored. Neal and Hishaw lead a Kansas rushing attack which is averaging 199 rushing yards per game this season, which is the fifth most in the Big 12 this season and 17th most nationally.

Kansas is tied for the nation’s lead in defensive touchdowns, as the Jayhawks have reached the end zone four times this season on defense, including three interception returns for a touchdown and one fumble return for a touchdown.

KU has won nine of its last 12 home games, including a record of 5-1 at home this season. The last time Kansas won five home games in a season was in 2008. Prior to Coach Lance Leipold’s arrival, the Jayhawks won nine home games dating back to 2014 with an overall home record of 6-91 in Big 12 play from 2010-2021. Over the last two seasons, Leipold has led Kansas to a 13-10 overall record, including a 2-3 record against Top 25 opponents.

College Football Expert Prediction

Kansas State 31, Kansas 27

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