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Can Kentucky End Georgia's Historic Winning Streak? Expert Analysis

Can Kentucky End Georgia’s Historic Winning Streak? Expert Analysis

The ABC prime-time game in Week 3 around college football is from the SEC, as No. 1 Georgia puts its historic regular-season winning streak on the line as it visits unranked Kentucky.

The Dawgs are heavy favorites on the NCAAF odds and have won 14 straight in the series.

Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: UGA -24 (total 45)
Expert Prediction: Georgia 34, Kentucky 13
 

Georgia Bulldogs -3030

No. 1 Georgia (2-0) trashed No. 13 Clemson in the season opener and then played a glorified scrimmage this past Saturday and beat Tennessee Tech 48-3. Tech’s score came on the final play of the shortened fourth quarter, as Hayden Olsen split the uprights as time expired on a 32-yard kick.

Carson Beck

Dawgs QB, among the Heisman Trophy favorites, completed his first 11 passes, for 111 yards, and threw three touchdown passes in the first half. Beck sat out much of the second half after the game was a 38-0 runaway, and ended his day 18 of 25 passing for 242 yards and five touchdowns. Beck became the eighth Georgia passer to throw five TD passes in a game. He is 15-1 in his career as the starting quarterback (6-1 against top 20 teams).

Trevor Etienne

The running back, the Florida transfer who missed the Bulldogs’ opener, made his Georgia debut Saturday. He finished with 78 rushing yards on five carries, including a 45-yarder late in the second quarter that helped set up the Bulldogs’ next score. The Bulldogs return four starters on the line in Earnest Greene III, Dylan Fairchild, Tate Ratledge and Xavier Truss, along with Micah Morris, Jared Wilson, and Monroe Freeling. Georgia is averaging 7.81 yards per play and 472.5 yards per game in 2024. The 2023 Georgia offense set a school record, averaging 7.26 yards per play while the 496.5 yards per game average ranked second all-time.

While the Georgia offense piled up 498 yards vs. TTU while averaging 8.2 yards per play, the Bulldog defense held the Golden Eagles to 134 yards of total offense and just 2.8 yards per play. For the second straight game, Georgia shut out its opponent in the first half.

The Record

Georgia now has won 41 straight regular season games dating back to the 2020 season. The Bulldogs are 48-2 in their last 50 games. Head coach Kirby Smart’s career record improved to 96-16. The Bulldogs extended their school record home winning streak to 26 games. Georgia has a 15-game winning streak in an opponent’s home stadium, which leads in FBS. The streak began in 2020 with a 14-3 win over Kentucky. Georgia last fell at No. 2 Alabama in 2020.

Smart is unbeaten against all active head coaches over the past five years. Georgia is 64-6 in that span. The coaches no longer active who have wins over Georgia during this stretch: Nick Saban (3) along with Will Muschamp, Ed Orgeron and Dan Mullen. UGA has won an SEC and school record 27 consecutive regular season wins in league play.

“They’re physical,” Smart said of facing Kentucky. “So you play defense, you have physical lines of scrimmage, you have huge people on the offensive and defensive line, and you’re hard to move the ball on. So the environment they create is very good. They’ve got great fans. They’ve got a great stadium. They’ve reduced their stadium to have more premium seating, so they actually get less people in, but they’re louder when they’re there. They’re passionate. They play really hard. They’re well-coached. That’s what makes it tough.”

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Kentucky Wildcats +1125

The Wildcats now feature a pair of former Bulldogs in Georgia graduate Brock Vandagriff at quarterback and 2022 All-America linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. They left for UK after last season.

Last Game

Kentucky (1-1) opened SEC play last Saturday with a brutal 31-6 home loss to South Carolina. LaNorris Sellers threw two touchdown passes for USC, Nick Emmanwori returned one of the Gamecocks’ two interceptions for another score, and the Gamecocks held Kentucky to just 183 yards. South Carolina also rang up five sacks, capping a defensive performance that held Kentucky to just 44 yards passing. The overall yardage allowed was the Gamecocks’ lowest since holding Eastern Illinois to 109 in 2021.

“We’ve been beaten pretty badly by some really good football teams, but I felt like our team always fought back,” coach Mark Stoops said. “Today, it didn’t look like we were a very well-coached team, and it didn’t look like a team that, that really, wanted to respond.”

Injuries

Even before losing left guard Jager Burton and right tackle Gerald Mincey to injuries, the offensive line struggled to protect Vandagriff in the loss and never got the passing game going. Demie Sumo-Karngbaye rushed 17 times for 70 of the Wildcats’ 139 yards, but the Wildcats couldn’t reach the end zone. The Wildcats were 3 of 14 on third down and failed on both fourth-down chances.

Gavin Wimsatt

Seeing his first UK action, QB Wimsatt completed three of his seven passing attempts for 14 yards. WR Barion Brown snapped his streak of 27 straight games – every game of his collegiate career – with a reception. He needs just three more catches to become the 20th player in Kentucky history with at least 100 receptions.

While UK’s offense was awful in Week 2, the defense played well. Kentucky has now held 10 of its last 16 opponents to less than 100 yards rushing, dating back to the final game of 2022. UK has allowed 86 rushing yards or less in each of the first two games, the first time to accomplish that since 2017. UK has allowed 252 total offensive yards or less in each of the first two games, the first time to accomplish that since 2008. It also has allowed 166 passing yards or less in each of the first two games for the first time since 2010.

“We have to turn the page quickly. We have to hone in on what we’re going to do and clearly do it better and make sure we’re putting our players in a position to be successful,” Stoops said. “Playing Georgia, the number one team in the country. It’s a great opportunity. I have great respect for Kirby, their staff. Those guys do a great job. Carson Beck, just a remarkable player. He’s hitting on all cylinders right now. You name it, he does it. He’s a clear leader on a veteran team.”

UK has lost its last nine meetings against a No. 1 opponent since a triple-overtime win over eventual national champion LSU in 2007. This will be the fourth straight season that Kentucky takes on Georgia, with the Bulldogs ranked No. 1 in the country. Kentucky is 3-17 all-time against No. 1-ranked opponents.

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Georgia at Kentucky NCAA Football Info

When: Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Kroger Field
TV: ABC
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: ESPN radio

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Georgia vs Kentucky Last Season

Last year, Kentucky was ranked No. 20 and Georgia No. 1 when the Cats visited Athens and were clobbered 51-13. Dawgs QB Carson Beck passed for 389 yards and four touchdowns, while Brock Bowers had seven catches for 132 yards – Bowers is now with the Las Vegas Raiders. UGA scored on all six of its first-half possessions and led 34-7 at the break. It has won 14 straight in the series. Georgia’s last visit to Lexington came on a cold, windy day in 2022 as the Bulldogs emerged with a 16-6 victory.

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